Bitcoin has been trending downwards for the past four weeks, with long-term investors and market observers pointing out that it is priced below an important technical level. Recent data shows that the price has fallen below the 50-week simple moving average (SMA). In technical analysis, this level has stood out in the past as the point of separation between bull and bear markets.
50-Week SMA: Historical Trend and Latest Developments
Bitcoin entered distinct bearish periods in 2014, 2018, and 2022 after closing below the 50-week SMA in various market cycles. Currently, Bitcoin price is trading at around $68,400, down 40 percent from its historical peak. The fact that it remains below this average for four consecutive weeks strengthens the impression in financial circles that the current upward cycle is nearing its end. Experts point out that pricing below this level for a long time usually accelerates the downward trend.
Support Zones and On-chain Data
Although technical indicators signal weakening, some institutional investors consider this process to be a planned risk reduction rather than a systemic collapse. In the short term, the $60,000–$65,000 range is seen as a strong support area. CryptoQuant’s on-chain analysis reveals that the $55,000–$55,800 band, where the 200-week SMA intersects with the realized price of the network, indicates the possible bottom zone for long-term buyers. Historically, long-term investors have taken positions at these levels during similar phases.
Transformation in the Attitude of Institutions
The change in investor risk appetite strengthens the negative atmosphere in the market. The Fear and Greed Index has recently hit record lows and has fallen into extreme fear territory. The fact that purchases in US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which continued throughout 2025, turned into sales in early 2026 supports this view. It is considered that the negative trend may continue when market actors change direction, combined with technical indicators.
Conditions Necessary for Bearish Signal Invalidation
For Bitcoin to return to an uptrend, the price must permanently hold above the 50-week SMA for several weeks in a row. In particular, a prolonged close above $80,000 could enable an improvement in the long-term technical outlook. Analysts state that the risk may continue unless this level is exceeded.
According to CryptoQuant data, the intersection area of the realized price of the network and the 200-week SMA stands out as an area that encourages buyers in the market.
The 50-week moving average has so far served as a key indicator of cycle transitions. Prolonged moves below this level are rarely viewed as neutral and often indicate a change in market trend.
In a period of increasing volatility in crypto markets, technical and on-chain indicators play an important role in guiding investors. Monitoring both market structure and investor behavior is critical to understanding the current cycle.
