The decline in annual inflation in the USA to 2.4 percent in January highlighted the impact of tight monetary policy on asset markets. Although the liquidity tightening ended for a short time in December 2025, the risk appetite in the market did not increase significantly and the monetary expansion did not occur to the extent expected. According to a new report published by KriptoQuant, capital flows are still cautious and do not indicate enthusiastic buying.
Turning to US Bonds and Bitcoin
While the US 10-year bond yield decreased to 4.08 percent, it is observed that investors turned to safe havens. This defensive stance of capital is considered as the beginning of a structural shift from traditional markets to Bitcoin. The KriptoQuant report emphasizes that this cautious atmosphere in the markets also affects bitcoin.
On-Chain Data: Accumulation Period and WTBIH Framework
According to blockchain data, a total of 387,930 bitcoins have been accumulated between wallets in the last 30 days. This amount is above the monthly average and shows that large-scale investors have increased their interest in crypto assets, despite reservations at the macro level. The report also includes the “When The BTC Is Hedge” (WTBIH) indicator to measure whether Bitcoin acts as a hedge.
Latest Situation in WTBIH Indicator
WTBIH model; It combines daily crypto speculation index, monthly consumer price index (CPI) and bond flow data on a business day basis. The latest indicators are as follows:
- The annual change in CPI (CPI) indicates a deflationary environment with 2.4 percent.
- The safe-haven flow in the bond market is 24 points, which is below the macro trigger level.
- The crypto speculation index is far from the speculative threshold at 1.74.
- The WTBIH belief level is 55.74, which is lower than required for confirmation of protection status.
While these data show that Bitcoin continues to accumulate at a technical level, it indicates that the asset has not yet become a full protection tool within the scope of the model.
The report also states that speculative risk in the market has greatly reduced, but leveraged sales are still effective. According to the WTBIH model, for Bitcoin to be defined as a “Digital Treasure”, the bond current must rise above 30 points and the belief level must rise above 70. Current indicators reveal that the asset is still in accumulation mode.
Bitcoin displays a mature structure, with speculative pressures decreasing and a continuous accumulation process. However, it is stated that a stronger macroeconomic capital transformation is required for the risk hedging function to be fully activated.
Current data shows that investors have started to increase their hedge positions. However, a definitive protection signal has not yet emerged on a global scale.
