While Bitcoin, the flagship of the cryptocurrency market, is trying to hold on to the level of $ 66,000 after a 30% loss in value in the last month, Alphractal data revealed that the “Realized Capital Impulse” indicator turned negative for the first time in three years. This critical signal, indicating that long-term capital inflows are weakening, indicates that the largest cryptocurrency has entered a phase of structural contraction and a deep bear market may be at the door, as in past cycles. In this period when the global uncertainty index has reached historical peaks, it is observed that even corporate purchases are insufficient to balance the supply pressure in the market.
Three-Year Silence on Capital Flows Broken
Realized Capital Impulse (Long-Term), which tracks real value changes in the Bitcoin network, has moved into the red zone for the first time since 2021. Unlike traditional market cap, this metric, which is based on the price at which each Bitcoin last moved within the Blockchain, measures the actual money entering the system, clearing out speculative noise in the market. Analyzes shared by Alphractal prove that the negative reading proves that new capital inflows have come to a halt and demand can no longer erode existing supply.
When past market cycles are examined, it is seen that every scenario in which this indicator turns negative is followed by sharp corrections in prices or periods of stagnation lasting for years. Alphractal founder Joao Wedson emphasizes that although spot ETFs have accumulated and giant institutions such as Strategy have increased their positions, the overall demand structure has not been able to meet the supply put into the market. This raises concerns that Bitcoin is moving from a phase of structural growth to a phase of contraction.
The Pressure of Global Uncertainty on Cryptocurrency
The disruption of in-blockchain data is occurring simultaneously with escalating macroeconomic and geopolitical risks around the world. According to CryptoQuant data, Global Uncertainty Index; It has reached an all-time high, leaving behind major disasters such as the September 11 attacks, the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic period. In such a chaotic environment, investors move into a defensive position by avoiding risky assets, while capital movements proceed with a much more cautious and aggressive pricing strategy.
This “perfect storm” environment, where political pressures, economic recession expectations and geopolitical tensions are experienced simultaneously, turns high volatility in the markets from a temporary situation into a permanent feature. In this uncertainty phase, where participants are restructuring their portfolios, it is discussed whether Bitcoin can be a safe haven. However, current data clearly reflect that long-term capital commitment has weakened and the market has entered a turning point where it is difficult to find direction.
