As the wind turned in the cryptocurrency market, the price of Bitcoin fell far below the cost of short-term investors, creating a deep wave of anxiety in the cryptocurrency world. According to CryptoQuant data, this pressure period that has been going on for the last four months bears the footsteps of a classic bear market rather than a correction phase. Analysts emphasize that the lack of liquidity in the market, as new capital inflows come to a halt, reinforces the downward pressure on prices.
Loss Cycle and Bear Market Signals for Short-Term Investors
‘Darkfost’, which operates within the cryptocurrency analysis platform CryptoQuant, clearly revealed the pessimistic picture in the market with the data it shared on Wednesday. With Bitcoin falling to $67,000, the unrealized loss of short-term investors who purchased at a cost of approximately $94,200 reached 28%. The fact that the price has been below the investor cost for four months is reminiscent of the one-year stress periods experienced in the past two major bear seasons.
The main factor that fuels the negative atmosphere in the market is the cut off of fresh capital inflow. The “buying the dip” appetite seen in bull markets has been replaced by an escape from existing positions. Analysts note that the influx of new investors turning negative prevents the selling pressure from being absorbed, which is a typical early bear market characteristic.
On the technical side, the analyst named ‘Daan Trades Crypto’ draws attention to critical Fibonacci levels. Bitcoin’s downward breakout, failing to hold the .382 Fibonacci retracement level, led to the disruption of a cyclical pattern. Currently, the next major support zone is the .618 Fibonacci point at $57,800.
Long-Term Accumulation and the Status of Alternative Assets
Contrary to pessimistic scenarios, Bitfinex analysts offer a more optimistic perspective that the market is experiencing a “mid-cycle reset.” This view is supported by the fact that the supply held by long-term investors increased again after the months-long distribution process and reached the level of 14.3 million BTC. This accumulation strategy of the big players, called whales, keeps on the table the possibility that the current decline may be a healthy correction, not a final peak.
Although the largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, is traded at $ 67,200 in the Asian session, selling pressure continues to make its presence felt. On the Ethereum side, the situation has become more painful. Ethereum, which fell below the psychological $ 2,000 limit, dropped to $ 1,950 and tested March 2025 levels. Although it has not yet reached the lows of the great crash of April 2025, there are no signs of an overall recovery in the altcoin market.
Market observers agree that support levels will continue to be tested unless there is fresh capital inflow. Deepening losses as Bitcoin falls below $66,000 are seriously dampening investors’ risk appetite. Macroeconomic data and corporate entries seem likely to be the main factors that will determine the direction of the market in the coming days.
