Geoff Kendrick, who manages Standard Chartered’s digital asset research unit, stated that Bitcoin faces the risk of more losses in the short term and that macroeconomic pressures are increasing with the decrease in investor appetite. In Kendrick’s note, it was pointed out that the signals of stagnation in the US economy and the weakening of expectations for a Fed interest rate cut led to a retreat in crypto markets.
Macroeconomic Developments and Interest Policy Impact
Recently, expectations for the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut have been postponed, and uncertainty has gradually increased in the markets. Standard Chartered states that this situation increases the pressure on the crypto market. The bank updated its previous forecasts for Bitcoin downwards. The 2026 year-end price target was reduced from 150 thousand dollars to 100 thousand dollars. Additionally, the expected target of $100 thousand for Bitcoin by the end of 2025 was not realized.
ETF Flows and Institutional Demand Weaken
Significant outflows in spot Bitcoin ETFs are dampening demand, according to Standard Chartered. According to the bank’s report, the amount of Bitcoin held by ETFs has decreased by approximately 100 thousand since the October 2025 peak. With the average purchase price on ETFs around $90,000, many investors are currently carrying unrealized losses. It is stated that this situation may lead to additional sales pressure in the future.
The fact that corporate companies reduce their treasury savings is also effective in slowing down the large-scale demand for crypto assets. Geoff Kendrick emphasized that corporate purchases have lost their former influence and the main driving force is now ETF inflows.
The bank pointed out that only half of the amount of Bitcoin in circulation is in profit following the current price movements. Although this rate is more moderate than in previous bear cycles, the decrease in the rate of investors making profits indicates that the market is suppressed.
Bitcoin fell to its lowest level in the last 16 months at $60,008 last week; It is currently trading around $67,000. In addition, the possibility of a similar withdrawal in Ethereum to $ 1,400 has been raised.
However, the bank maintains its constructive stance on the long-term outlook. Standard Chartered emphasizes that recent corrections have not caused serious platform crashes as in previous cycles. It is stated here that improvements especially in on-chain usage data continue.
Finally, it was underlined that there was no change in the bank’s long-term Bitcoin price target of $500 thousand, which it previously predicted for 2030.
