Dogecoin (DOGE), one of the most popular meme coins in the cryptocurrency markets, is failing to show signs of a strong recovery in February. When technical indicators, on-chain data and derivative market metrics come together, a cautious outlook stands out on the DOGE front. The ongoing sales pressure continues to suppress investors’ short-term expectations.
Technical Indicators Confirm the Downtrend
Dogecoin is moving in a clear downtrend on the 4-hour chart. Consecutive lower highs and lower lows make it clear that sellers are maintaining control over the price. The fact that the price remains below all major exponential moving averages indicates that the bearish momentum has not yet been broken. In particular, the positioning of the 200-period exponential moving average in the $0.125–0.126 band creates a strong technical resistance for DOGE.
Although short-term reaction purchases are seen from time to time, these upward attempts remain weak and are quickly met with sales in previous resistance areas. The $0.118–$0.120 range stands out as an important region that has previously been broken downwards. As long as the price remains below this range, it can be said that the short-term direction is in favor of the sellers. A sustained close above this level could be the first signal of technical stabilization; However, current price movements do not yet indicate such a scenario.
On the downside, the $0.112–0.110 band is watched as a critical support area. If this region is lost, the sell-off is likely to accelerate towards $0.105. In a deeper decline, the $0.100–$0.098 range is the last strong line of defense, psychologically and technically.
What Do Derivatives Markets and Spot Flows Say?
The weakness in the technical outlook is also supported by derivative market data. Dogecoin open interest has increased rapidly during strong rallies in the past, followed by sharp liquidations. Current data shows that open positions are around $1 billion and leverage is relatively low. This indicates that investors’ risk appetite remains weak.
Spot market data paints a similar picture. The fact that net outflows predominate on most trading days suggests that distribution rather than accumulation is ongoing on the DOGE side. Especially the coincidence of large outflows with price declines shows that investors continue to reduce positions. Short-term entries are not strong enough to reverse the general trend.
In addition to this picture, the volume decrease in the overall meme coin market in recent days is also noteworthy. Increasing interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs is causing capital to shift to larger and relatively safe assets, while high-risk assets like Dogecoin are taking a backseat in this process.
