While the first months of 2026 will be quite turbulent for Bitcoin (BTC), “collapse” scenarios are being talked about one after another in the global media. However, Bernstein, one of the important research institutions of the investment world, offers a completely opposite view to this pessimistic picture. According to company analysts, Bitcoin could hit $150,000, reaching a new all-time high (ATH) before the end of 2026. This ambitious prediction has brought about a heated debate in the markets again.
The report, led by Bernstein’s chief crypto analyst Gautam Chhugani, argues that the early 2026 period is the “weakest bear scenario in Bitcoin history.” According to analysts, the latest selling wave is a reflection of investors’ past habits rather than a harbinger of a new “crypto winter”.
Institutional Interest and Political Wind Support Bitcoin
The basis of Bernstein’s $150,000 target lies in the strengthening of structural and political supports for Bitcoin. In the report, the fact that institutional actors such as banks, large funds and investment companies have started to include BTC more in their portfolios is considered as a clear departure from previous cycles. This indicates that Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset but a permanent instrument in the financial system.
On the other hand, it is emphasized that the regulatory environment in the USA is experiencing one of the most favorable periods in history for digital assets. Contrary to the “war against crypto” rhetoric frequently voiced during the Biden era, it is stated that the Donald Trump administration has a more moderate approach to the sector. However, this support was not welcomed by everyone. While Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse welcomed the new regulations, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson publicly opposed some of the provisions.
Bernstein also reminds that, unlike previous big declines, there were no major bankruptcies or scandals that would bloody the market, and structural risks such as quantum computers still belong to the distant future.
Bearish Scenarios and Conflicting Forecasts
Of course, not everyone is as optimistic as Bernstein. Ali Martinez, known for his on-chain analysis, suggests that Bitcoin could drop to $38,000 by October. Martinez bases his prediction on Bitcoin’s time from bottom to top and bottom again in past cycles. Famous investor Michael Burry also brought up the possibility of $ 40,000 in a short post at the beginning of February, drawing attention to the similarities to the 2021-2022 period.
However, some analysts, such as Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, argue that the current decline is temporary and that this cycle differs significantly from the past. Additionally, the re-increase in net inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs in recent weeks is among the positive signals for the market.
Although Bitcoin has lost 22 percent of its value since the beginning of 2026, it has recovered from approximately $60,000 to $68,000. An increase of 117 percent from current prices is required for Bernstein’s target to be realized.
