The Bitcoin market has signaled a short-term recovery after the sharp selling wave in recent weeks. The leading cryptocurrency, which dropped by approximately 30 percent to 60 thousand dollars, successfully tested this critical threshold and started an upward movement again. Especially the fact that Coinbase Premium data turned positive indicates that the risk appetite of US investors has revived. However, according to experts, this recovery does not mean that a full bull market has started yet.
Coinbase Premium Turns Positive: Is US Investor Confidence Returning?
Coinbase Premium is considered an important indicator that reveals the market perception of US-based investors by measuring the difference between the price of Bitcoin on the Coinbase exchange and its price on global exchanges. According to CryptoQuant Research Director Julio Moreno, this indicator has been negative since mid-January, revealing that US investors valued Bitcoin lower than global investors.
However, with Bitcoin receiving a strong reaction from the $60,000 level, Coinbase Premium moved into positive territory again. This shows that American investors considered the decline as a buying opportunity and started to return to the market. As a matter of fact, the Bitcoin price increased by more than 16 percent during this period and climbed to the 70 thousand dollar range. Still, analysts warn that it may be premature to expect a permanent recovery just by looking at Coinbase Premium data.
What Do Macro Risks and Alternative Indicators Say?
Behind the sharp decline in Bitcoin are not only intra-crypto dynamics but also global macroeconomic developments. Liquidation of leveraged positions, intense outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, volatility in commodity markets and investors’ expectations of the classic “boom-bust” cycle were among the main factors that triggered this decline.
Another current development that draws attention at this point is the uncertainty regarding the interest policy of the US Federal Reserve. The recently announced inflation data coming in above expectations has strengthened the possibility of the Fed postponing interest rate cuts. This situation puts pressure not only on Bitcoin but also on risky assets in general. Similarly, geopolitical tensions and global liquidity tightening necessitate a cautious stance in the crypto market.
Bitcoin is still trading nearly 50 percent below its all-time high, according to CryptoQuant’s latest analysis. Considering that there have been pullbacks of up to 70-80 percent in past bear markets, the possibility of a deeper correction is not completely ruled out. According to analysts, the real risk is not how much the price will fall, but how long this “crypto winter” will last.
