As the end of February approaches in the cryptocurrency markets, expectations for Bitcoin are starting to become clear. Data from prediction markets show that investors accustomed to sharp price movements are drawing a more cautious picture this time. It is noteworthy that, despite the high volatility experienced especially in recent weeks, the market expects Bitcoin to stabilize in a narrow band.
What Prediction Markets Say: 75 Thousand Dollar Scenario Stands Out
According to Polymarket data, the probability of Bitcoin closing February 2026 at approximately 75 thousand dollars is priced as the highest probability with 54 percent. This shows that investors are preparing for a consolidation process rather than a strong rise. Despite the panic atmosphere that occurred when Bitcoin recently fell below 65 thousand dollars, scenarios above 70 thousand dollars for the end of the month are still on the table.
However, downside risks have not completely disappeared. The fact that prediction markets give a 42 percent probability for 60 thousand dollars and a 23 percent probability for 55 thousand dollars reveals that macroeconomic uncertainties are still perceived as a serious threat. Particularly the rise in US bond yields, fluctuations in global risk appetite and the selective approach towards crypto assets are among the main reasons for this cautious stance.
Upward expectations weaken above the current price range. While the target of 80 thousand dollars is priced with a 25 percent probability and 85 thousand dollars with only a 12 percent probability, scenarios above 100 thousand dollars are limited to single-digit probabilities. This distribution clearly reveals that the market has gone into “wait-and-see” mode.
Recovery After the Harsh Sell-Off and Fragile Balance in the Market
This cautious picture becomes more meaningful with the sharp fluctuations that Bitcoin has experienced in recent days. Bitcoin, which fell to just above 60 thousand dollars in the middle of the week, rose above 70 thousand dollars again on Friday with a strong reaction. This increase, which exceeded 3 percent on a daily basis, was recorded as one of the sharpest recoveries seen since the beginning of 2023.
The increase in transaction volume to $90 billion and total market value to approximately $1.37 trillion shows that this move is not just a technical jump. However, this recovery followed a sharp sell-off the day before, which led to liquidations of $2.6 billion across the crypto market. The fact that Bitcoin is more than 45 percent behind its peak of $126,000 in October 2025 explains why investor psychology remains fragile.
At this point, another development completes the picture: the accelerated outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs in recent weeks. According to current data, billions of dollars of fund outflow in just one week shows that institutional investors tend to reduce risks in the short term. In parallel, similar fluctuations are observed in Ethereum and some major altcoins.
