Bitcoin fell below the bottom level seen in April 2025, creating a new wave of anxiety in the cryptocurrency market. The accelerated decline in price in recent weeks has caused investors to focus on when the bear market will end. Analysts point out that the current decline occurred in a shorter time compared to previous cycles and argue that the bottom level may occur earlier than expected. However, some experts state that the market has not yet fully reached equilibrium and the risk of a new sales wave continues.
Acceleration in Bitcoin Cycles and Early Bottom Expectation
While the bear periods seen in the Bitcoin market in previous years lasted an average of 12 months, it is observed that the current cycle is progressing faster. The sharp retreat that started after the earlier-than-expected peak in October caused the price to experience a large depreciation in a short time. According to experts, this acceleration strengthens the possibility of the bottom level occurring in the summer months, especially between June and August.
The increasing presence of institutional investors makes market dynamics more complex than in previous periods. The decreasing influence of long-term investors and miners on the price causes Bitcoin to increasingly behave similar to traditional risk assets. This trend paves the way for price movements to become more parallel to indices such as the S&P 500.
Some analysts argue that the current decline corresponds to approximately one-third of the duration of the classic bear market and that the middle of the process is not yet reached. Accordingly, the ongoing uncertainty along with the horizontal and weak course in the market may continue to put investor psychology under pressure.
Support Levels, Expert Opinions and Possible Scenarios
Experienced trader Peter Brandt pointed out that Bitcoin fell below the long-term support level on the weekly chart. In past cycles, a breakout of the 100-week moving average often caused the price to decline rapidly towards the 200-week average. When the periods of 2014, 2018 and 2022 are examined, it is seen that short-term recoveries are limited.
According to historical data, Bitcoin encounters strong buying interest when it loses between 40 percent and 60 percent from its peak. While the possibility of a sharp 70 percent decline in the current cycle is seen as slim, analysts think that the final bottom is 20 percent to 30 percent away. While the $65,000 level stands out as an area where fear intensifies, a possible decline towards $55,000 may trigger panic sales.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz argued that the latest decline was due to profit taking rather than deterioration in fundamental indicators. Bitcoin’s approach to $130,000 after rising above $100,000 led early investors to realize their gains. According to Novogratz, prices are seeking stability in a wide band between $70,000 and $100,000, and levels around $76,000 indicate that leveraged positions have been largely cleared.
Macroeconomic outlook, interest rate expectations and progress in cryptocurrency regulations also play a determining role on the price. Additionally, growth in stablecoin usage and blockchain infrastructure shows continued adoption, supporting long-term prospects.
