In January, Bitcoin’s value against gold (XAU) fell to a historical low. This comparison, taking into account the global money supply, marks one of Bitcoin’s weakest periods ever compared to gold. According to analysts, this picture presents an even more attractive buying opportunity than the conditions seen before the 2015–2017 bull market. Therefore, it is not a coincidence that a possible capital rotation from gold to Bitcoin has come to the fore again in the market.
Extreme Depreciation Debate in Bitcoin Versus Gold
According to data from Bitwise Europe, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has approached the “extreme weakness” zone, which has historically coincided with market bottoms. This indicator last saw similar levels in 2015, and then the Bitcoin price rose from $ 165 to $ 20 thousand, an increase of approximately 11,800 percent in two years. Famous analyst Michaël van de Poppe describes the current situation as “an even better buying opportunity than 2017.”
Among those who share this view are Bitwise Europe Research Director André Dragosch and Swyftx chief analyst Pav Hundal. According to Hundal, the strong rise in gold prices in the last year may pave the way for investors to turn to higher risk assets by realizing profits. It seems likely that a gradual capital shift from gold to Bitcoin will begin, especially in February and March. However, analysts warn that this process will not be sudden and harsh.
Long-Term Bitcoin Investors Take the Stage
Although Bitcoin experienced a sharp retreat in January and lost approximately 18 percent of its value on an annual basis, on-chain data paints a calmer picture. “Long-term investors” who have been holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days began to increase their positions again during the selling pressure. The recovery in long-term investor supply and the decline in indicators measuring the selling tendency of this group have heralded permanent bottoms in past cycles.
A similar picture was seen after the April 2025 bottoms, and the accumulation of long-term investors brought about a strong recovery of 60 percent in the Bitcoin price about a month later. This shows that patient investors consider price declines as opportunities and the market forms a more solid ground.
On the other hand, not everyone is equally optimistic. Analyst Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin’s weak course against stocks may continue and that a large-scale capital outflow from gold and silver should not be expected in the short term. As a matter of fact, Citi states that the rise in silver may continue due to Chinese demand and the weakening dollar, while RBC Capital Markets predicts that the gold price may reach 7 thousand dollars by the end of 2026.
As a result, the historical divergence in the Bitcoin–gold ratio may be opening a long-term window of opportunity for the crypto market. However, it remains unclear how long this window will last and how quickly capital rotation will occur. Although caution is necessary in the short term, on-chain data and past cycles offer promising signals for patient investors.
