CAKE, the native token of PancakeSwap, one of the important projects of the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, is experiencing one of the harshest and longest-lasting decline trends in recent months. While the rapid decline in the price makes investors nervous, the divergence between spot markets and futures reveals a striking picture. In particular, the behavior of investors trading on Binance provides critical clues about the short-term direction of CAKE.
Significant Distinction Between Binance Spot and Futures Markets
Market data shows that there is a clear divergence of opinion between the spot market and the futures market in the case of CAKE. Considering Binance’s dominant position in total trading volume, investor behavior here determines price movements. While the transaction volume recently increased by 115 percent to 76 million dollars, the CAKE price decreased by more than 11 percent in the same period. This chart is interpreted as a classic “distribution process” due to the combination of falling price and increasing volume.
According to CoinMarketCap data, Binance investors accounted for approximately 14 percent of the total transaction volume and 11 percent of the net selling pressure. This indicates a strong selling trend in the spot market. However, on the futures front, the picture is a little more complicated. Although Taker Buy/Sell Ratio data shows that sell-side transactions are generally dominant, investors with the largest positions on Binance are breaking out of this trend. The ratio of major players at 2.43 suggests that a possible upward trend is still on the table.
Critical Support Zone and Contradiction of Technical Indicators
With the latest decline, CAKE price fell to the lowest levels seen since April 2025. Despite this, the fact that the price has entered a demand zone where strong purchases have occurred in the past shows that a completely negative scenario is not drawn from a technical perspective. This region has previously been the starting point of serious rises. If a similar picture occurs, it may be possible for the CAKE price to compensate for some of the decline that started in November 2025.
However, a possible recovery will face strong resistance due to the downward trend line that has been suppressing the price for a long time. If this level is exceeded, the 2.5-2.7 dollar band may come to the fore. Losing the demand zone increases the risk of a sideways trend or a deeper retreat. Technical indicators also support this uncertainty. While the Money Flow Index (MFI) shows that capital outflows continue, the RSI indicator falling into the oversold zone indicates that the selling pressure may weaken.
This picture on the CAKE side is also parallel to the general trend in the DeFi sector. A similar volume increase and price pressure recently experienced in the Uniswap ecosystem revealed that investors’ tendency to avoid risk has increased across DeFi projects. This shows that the pressure on PancakeSwap is fueled not only by the project-specific but also by the uncertainty in the industry in general.
