Ripple’s CTO Emeritus David Schwartz has reignited the ongoing debate in the cryptocurrency world by directly responding to exaggerated expectations for the XRP price. In his statements on the social media platform X, he clearly revealed the disconnect between the market value of the altcoin and online estimates. While Schwartz avoided articulating an absolute price target, he offered a framework based on basic financial mathematics. His assessment led to questioning why investor behavior did not match the claims made.
Cold-blooded Approach to XRP Price from Schwartz
The discussion started when a user demanded that XRP make it clear to the community that it cannot reach $50 or $100. David Schwartz stayed away from definitive predictions, reminding that in the past he found it unlikely that XRP would even reach $0.25. Instead, he reasoned about how rational investors reflect expectations into pricing.
According to Schwartz, if a serious number of rational investors saw the probability of XRP reaching $ 100 in a few years at 10 percent, selling at current prices would not make economic sense. Such an expectation would lead to rapid depletion of supply through aggressive purchases, and the price would not remain much below $10. The fact that the market is still far from these levels shows that this belief is not supported by capital.
Using harsh language in his statements, Schwartz stated that it contradicts the investment behavior of people who advocate high targets, and that claims to the contrary do not reflect the truth. He suggested investors do the same calculation on their own using probability and time horizon variables.
Market Indicators and More Cautious Scenarios
XRP is trading at approximately $1.75 at the time of writing. The altcoin has lost more than 8 percent in value in the last week and approximately 44 percent on an annual basis. Analysts point out that the horizontal course, which has lasted for approximately 434 days, is one of the longest consolidation periods of the altcoin. The fact that the price is approximately 25 percent below the 200-day moving average supports the technically cautious outlook.
Despite the short-term weakness, there are some positive signals. Spot XRP ETFs traded in the US recorded net inflows of approximately $92 million in January. Internal blockchain data shows that 42 new wallets holding at least 1 million XRP have emerged as of the beginning of 2026.
More measured expectations stand out on the corporate front. The 2026 projection shared by 21Shares includes a base scenario target of around $2.45 if ETF flows continue and Ripple’s stablecoin moves are adopted. This approach, along with Schwartz’s emphasis on expected value, offers a more realistic framework against extreme predictions.
