Although XRP remains under price pressure in the first weeks of 2026, it shows a remarkable divergence in on-blockchain data. While the price of the altcoin has decreased by approximately 4 percent since the beginning of the year, the increase in the number of wallets with high balances reveals a different picture of investor behavior. While the search for direction in the market continued, large-scale investors increased their positions, making XRP one of the closely watched altcoins. This outlook points to an area of balance where short-term weakness and long-term expectations collide.
Prices Under Pressure as Million-Wallets Increase
Intra-blockchain analysis platform Santiment reported that, as of January 29, the number of wallets holding at least 1 million XRP has increased by a net 42 since the beginning of the year. The increase, seen for the first time since September 2025, revealed that large investors were positioned on the side of accumulation rather than sales. The limited decline in the XRP price in the same period presented a picture indicating a controlled purchasing process rather than distribution.
According to CoinGecko data, XRP is trading at $ 1.88 at the time of writing. While the altcoin lost approximately 2 percent in value in the last 24 hours and 4 percent in the last seven days, it is in the slightly positive zone on a monthly basis. On an annual scale, the price is approximately 40 percent lower, creating a cautious outlook for long-term investors.
On the technical analysis side, data shared by Arab Chain shows that the price of the XRP coin remains approximately 25 percent below the 200-day moving average. The fact that the 30-day Sharpe ratio, which measures the risk-return balance, is close to zero shows that there is no meaningful return despite volatility. Market commentators argue that strong price targets are not compatible with current macroeconomic conditions and liquidity realities.
2026 Scenarios in the Shadow of ETFs and Regulation
The 2026 projections shared by the cryptocurrency investment company 21Shares draw a more measured framework for XRP. The institution highlighted the levels of $ 2.45 in the basic scenario, $ 2.70 in the optimistic scenario and $ 1.60 in negative conditions. The reopening of US-based corporate access after the SEC case concluded in August 2025 was included as an important element in the evaluation.
In its analysis, 21Shares pointed out that spot XRP ETFs, which started trading in the USA, collected over $1.3 billion in assets in the first month. Although ETFs provide structural support on the demand side, it is emphasized that permanent fund inflows and usage areas need to expand for a sustainable rise. Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin and its tokenization activities are among the topics closely watched in terms of valuation.
The technical outlook shows XRP stuck in the $1.80–$2.00 band. Analysts state that the short-term perception may change if the $ 2.00 level is exceeded. The gap between the surge in major wallets and cautious price action has made XRP one of the most closely watched altcoins of 2026.
