As the Bitcoin price struggles to maintain $88,000, the decline seems to have taken a break for now. Commodity investors are experiencing the same feelings that cryptocurrency investors experienced in the 2021 bulls these days. While supply shortage is expected to cause a rally for Bitcoin, liquidity to BTC It does not flow into metals.
Global Commodity Rally
Gold It’s about to achieve its biggest monthly gain since 1999. Silver is setting new records and palladium is about to post its biggest monthly gain since 2008. Kalay increased by 33% monthly. Natural gas reached its highest level in 3 years. Copper broke a record at $13,400. Aluminum is at an almost 4-year high. Lithium reached its peak in 2 years.
Gold is up almost 18% this month, meaning it will gain nearly 2x the total value of Bitcoin in just 26 days of 2026. The S&P 500 has been largely flat for the last 3 months and BTC continues to linger in the tight range it has been stuck in for over 2 months.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin leverage ratio falling silently. Since the introduction of ETFs, the 60-day % change in futures open interest has been recording lower highs. This is a clear sign that speculative intensity is decreasing from the system. It is unclear whether this situation will lead to a new decline, but the break in the trend and the rise in the spot price will indicate that we have come to the end of the boring days.
Bitcoin risk index Sharing Swissblock discussed 2 scenarios awaiting investors on the chart below.
“Recent price movements have strengthened the bearish sentiment. The Risk Index continues to rise as BTC loses the important support of $89,200 and the overall bearish sentiment is increasing.
However, the bulls still hold a critical defensive line near the $84,500 region and this area is currently seen as the nearest downside target.
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Bullish Scenario: If the 84.5k support is maintained (liquidity clearing is acceptable) as the Risk Index begins to cool down, we may see a high-conviction entry for long positions.
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Bearish Scenario: A breakout and consolidation below $84,500 will likely trigger a deeper correction and new lows below the November levels. The primary target is $74,000.”
