After spending the weekend in a narrow band, the cryptocurrency market came under sharp pressure in the early Asian session on rising macroeconomic concerns. While there were liquidations exceeding $550 million in leveraged long positions, Bitcoin tested the $86,000 level and found support, while Ethereum fell to the $2,785 region. During the same time period, investors’ risk aversion tendency strengthened, while gold and silver, traditional safe havens, continued their rise. The picture in the markets showed that the sensitivity of crypto assets to global macro developments has come to the fore again.
Macro Risks Pressure the Cryptocurrency Market
Multiple global developments were behind the selling wave seen in Asian transactions. US President Donald Trumpincreased tensions on the trade front with his statements that tariffs of up to 100 percent could be applied to products imported from Canada. During the same period, the risk of a blockage in budget negotiations in Washington brought the possibility of a partial shutdown of the federal government back to the agenda. All these headlines stood out among the main factors that increased the selling pressure in risky assets.
In the foreign exchange market, yen-oriented uncertainties affected investor behavior. Although the New York Fed’s USD/JPY “exchange rate control” on Friday was not seen as a direct intervention signal, it reminded us that there is a delicate balance between the USA and Japan against the extreme depreciation of the Japanese yen. Perceiving the 160 level as a critical threshold pushed investors to unwind their short yen positions. While the parity was hovering around a two-month high around 154, a more cautious stance was adopted in global portfolios.
A statement was also made that partially reduces the uncertainty on the North American front. Prime Minister of Canada Mark Carneylimited trade-related concerns by announcing that his country has no intention of signing a free trade agreement with China. Despite this, risks on the fiscal calendar in the USA continued to be a pressure for the cryptocurrency market.
Derivatives Markets and Calendar Printing
In US domestic politics, all eyes turned to budget negotiations. While Republicans in the House of Representatives are advancing bills that include spending nearly $64.4 billion for the Department of Homeland Security and border security, Democrats in the Senate have announced their intention to block those regulations. Current federal funding is set to expire on January 30, prompting a partial government shutdown if no agreement is reached by the end of the week. Markets remember last fall when a similar political impasse occurred simultaneously with sharp losses in crypto assets.
This risk perception was also reflected in the prediction markets. polymarket Data shows that the probability of a new shutdown by January 31 is priced at approximately 75 percent. As uncertainty increased, defensive positioning became evident in crypto derivatives markets; Put weight and implied volatility in options increased across all maturities. Among the noteworthy transactions was the shifting of Bitcoin $88,000 puts due January 30, 2026 to levels of $85,000.
The macro calendar remains busy in the coming days. The balance sheets of major technology companies will be announced on Wednesday Federal Reserve Interest rate decision is among the critical topics in terms of global pricing. Although no change in interest rates is expected, Chairman Jerome Powell’s forward-looking messages will be closely watched. Unresolved political and geopolitical risks pave the way for crypto prices to follow a volatile course in the short term.
