While financial markets showed a strong performance after Donald Trump won the US presidential election in November 2024, it is noteworthy that Bitcoin remained relatively weak. During this period, Bitcoin decreased by approximately 2.6 percent; silver rose 205 percent, gold rose 83 percent, Nasdaq rose 24 percent and the S&P 500 rose 17.6 percent. The failure of Bitcoin, the pioneer of the cryptocurrency market, to keep up with this situation has brought the “why” question back to the agenda among investors.
Quantum Computer Claims and Counter-Arguments
One of the names that sparked the latest debate was Castle Island Ventures partner Nic Carter. Carter argued that the quantum computer threat was behind Bitcoin’s “mysterious” lag and described it as “the most important story of the year.” It is known that quantum computers, which have been talked about as a theoretical risk for a long time, may threaten Bitcoin’s cryptographic infrastructure in the future.
However, this view has not gained wide acceptance in the crypto community. Checkonchain analyst @Checkmatey likened blaming the price’s horizontal course to quantum fears as explaining every decline with “manipulation”. According to him, the main factors that drive the market are supply balance and investor positioning. Especially in 2025, long-term investors (HODLers) switching to selling created pressure on a scale not seen in previous bull cycles.
Similarly, famous Bitcoin investor and author Vijay Boyapati argues that price movements are based on a much simpler reason. According to Boyapati, after exceeding the $100,000 level, large investors released a significant amount of unlocked Bitcoin, which naturally weakened the upward momentum.
Technical Facts, Market Dynamics and New Developments
On the technical side, the dominant view is that the quantum threat is still quite distant. Blockstream co-founder Adam Back states that even in the worst-case scenario, there will be no sudden and network-wide loss of assets. Additionally, Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 360 (BIP-360) offers a roadmap that enables a gradual transition to quantum-resistant address formats, if necessary.
While these discussions continue, another development affecting the crypto market was the fluctuation in institutional interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs in the USA. The reduction of ETF positions by some large funds in January increased short-term price pressure. On the other hand, the entry of new Asia-based funds into the market shows that institutional demand has not completely disappeared in the long term. This situation reveals that the future of Bitcoin is too multi-layered to be reduced to a single risk topic.
However, explaining Bitcoin’s recent poor performance solely by the quantum computer threat would ignore the complex nature of the market. Supply increase, large investor behavior and macroeconomic capital flows create much more concrete effects on the price. Although quantum risk is technically an issue that should be taken seriously, it does not provide a sufficient justification to explain short-term market movements.
