A new academic study indicating that inflation may accelerate again in the USA has questioned the expectation of “permanent disinflation” that is widespread in the cryptocurrency market. The research points out that consumer prices may rise above 4 percent towards the middle of 2026, drawing a risky picture for Bitcoin investors relying on interest rate cuts. The warning, which comes at a time when global bond interest rates are on the rise, increases uncertainty about the short-term direction of risky assets. Analysts emphasize that if the expected relaxation in monetary policy is delayed, the volatility in the cryptocurrency market may deepen.
Inflation Expectations Are on the Rise Again
Peterson Institute for International Economics President Adam Posen and Lazard CEO Peter R. Orszag argued in their latest research note that the cost of living in the USA may increase faster than expected. According to the study, import tariffs, a tightening labor market and higher public spending could offset the downward pressure created by artificial intelligence-driven productivity gains.
The research noted that the impact of the tariffs introduced during the Donald Trump era was reflected in consumer prices with a delay. While importers spread the cost increases over time, it was calculated that completing the process in mid-2026 could add approximately 50 basis points to headline inflation. Possible deportation practices in sectors dependent on immigrant labor were also cited as among the factors that could create demand-side price pressure by triggering wage increases.
In addition to all these, it was shared that the budget deficit could exceed 7 percent of GDP with the loosening of fiscal discipline. More comfortable financial conditions and unanchored inflation expectations were listed as other factors that could push consumer prices up. Researchers argue that the market consensus focusing on the decline in housing inflation and productivity growth remains incomplete.
What Does the Research Say for Bitcoin and Markets?
The consumer price index, which is the official inflation indicator in the USA, dropped to 2.7 percent in 2025. This decline strengthened the expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would make aggressive interest rate cuts. While some investment banks were predicting a 50-75 basis point relaxation in 2026, faster steps were being priced in the cryptocurrency market.
Analysts at cryptocurrency exchange Bitunix point out that the policy risk is remaining overly cautious rather than premature easing. It is shared that if structural disinflation is ignored, a harsher and more shocking policy adjustment may come to the fore in the future. It is stated that the markets have already started to price the “delayed compensation” scenario.
On the other hand, movements in the bond market limit risk appetite. While the US 10-year bond yield rose to 4.31 percent, its five-month high, the sharp sell-off in Japanese government bonds pulled global yields up. The largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, lost approximately 4 percent of its value during the week, falling to around $90,000. The increase in yields has increased the alternative cost for stocks and cryptocurrencies.
