While Bitcoin is losing value sharply, the luxury watch market is showing an unexpected upward divergence. While cryptocurrencies have remained under pressure over the past six months, there has been a limited but steady recovery in high-end watch prices in the secondary market. The data show that there is a clear divergence in investor behavior towards different asset classes during periods of macro stress. Especially high-end watch brands managed to maintain their prices despite the weakness in the cryptocurrency market.
Limited But Selective Recovery in Luxury Watches
The secondary market luxury watch index has risen nearly 4 percent in the past six months, according to WatchCharts data. During the same period, Bitcoin declined by approximately 25 percent. This divergence indicates that the tendency to “rise and fall together”, which is frequently seen in the post-pandemic period, is no longer valid.
The index, which includes thousands of references tracked by WatchCharts, reveals that prices, especially in the upper segment, form a base. In the report prepared by Morgan Stanley together with WatchCharts, it was emphasized that the rise in question reflected a balance process rather than a new bull market. According to the bank, after two years of declines, the clearing of excess supply and the decrease in compulsory sales towards the end of 2025 eased the pressure on prices.
During the same period, luxury watch manufacturers increased their global retail prices by an average of 7 percent from the beginning of 2025, serving as a strong anchor for secondary market values. Although transaction volumes remained weak, sellers became less willing to offer aggressive discounts, allowing prices to gradually recover.
Cryptocurrencies, Metals and Physical Scarcity Divergence
In 2024, the long-term correlation between cryptocurrencies and luxury watches broke down significantly for the first time. While Bitcoin rose on spot ETF expectations, watch prices continued to fall due to tightening financial conditions and reduced retail speculation. The current recovery has been limited only to brands with strong pricing power.
According to the report, Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet stand out in the secondary market, while most other brands are traded at deep discounts. Morgan Stanley states that controlled secondary sales channels, especially Rolex’s certified pre-owned program, reduce volatility and support upper segment prices.
According to Morgan Stanley’s analysis, the factor that makes the picture even clearer is the sharp rise in commodity markets. Since the beginning of 2025, gold has gained approximately 70 percent and silver has gained 150 percent in value. While physical supply congestion, industrial demand and policy risks increased volatility in metals, cryptocurrencies were left out of this search for a safe haven. The divergence shows that investors are now making more informed choices between fast-moving financial instruments and assets based on physical scarcity.
