As crypto heads into 2026, uncertainty is starting to shape market sentiment.
That was the main theme in a recent Paul Barron Network video featuring Crypto Banter’s Ran Neuner, where the discussion focused on what could drive the next major move for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Instead of price predictions, Neuner questioned one of crypto’s most familiar ideas: the four-year Bitcoin cycle.
Is the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Still Driving the Market?
Neuner argued that the halving was never the real force behind Bitcoin’s major rallies. According to him, liquidity has always mattered more.
“The four-year cycle was always dead and that we followed a liquidity cycle,” he said.
He explained that past bull runs likely lined up with global liquidity and business cycles, not the halving itself. As Bitcoin’s market size has grown, the halving’s impact on supply has become less significant.
Bitcoin Approaches a Critical Moment
Neuner compared the current Bitcoin setup to what happened in 2021. After a sharp drop, the market moved sideways for months before making a clear decision.
He said Bitcoin now faces a similar moment. A strong recovery could put the broader uptrend back on track. Failure to do so could send price toward long-term support levels. Either way, the next move may set the tone for the months ahead.
Macro Shocks Remain the Biggest Risk
A key warning from the conversation was how quickly crypto can turn risk-off during broader market stress. Topics like Federal Reserve credibility, political pressure, or sudden tariff concerns could shake investor confidence.
Neuner put it simply: “We’re sound money until until until we’re not and it’s riskoff mode.” When panic hits, Bitcoin has historically fallen alongside stocks.
Bitcoin vs Ethereum: What to Watch
Neuner shared a basic rule. When Bitcoin is strong and breaking higher, Ethereum usually performs better. When Bitcoin weakens or stalls, BTC tends to hold up more defensively.
The host added that Ethereum could still benefit from growth in tokenization, stablecoins, and onchain settlement, making ETH strength a signal that confidence is returning.
A Different Type of Crypto Buyer
The video also highlighted a shift in market participation. ETFs are bringing in institutions and high-net-worth investors who see crypto as part of a portfolio, not a short-term trade.
That change could mean fewer extreme hype cycles, but steadier demand over time and a very different path for the next bull market.
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FAQs
Clear signals would include Bitcoin reacting more strongly to interest-rate changes, central bank liquidity, and global risk appetite than to post-halving supply shifts. Sustained moves tied to macro policy decisions would reinforce this view.
Retail traders face higher volatility around macro events, while institutional investors may benefit from clearer correlations with traditional assets. Long-term holders may need to watch economic indicators as closely as on-chain metrics.
Key catalysts include shifts in U.S. Federal Reserve policy, changes in inflation expectations, or broader equity market trends. Regulatory clarity around crypto ETFs and onchain finance could also influence momentum.
Investors may place greater emphasis on portfolio allocation, risk management, and macro timing rather than short-term cycle trading. This could favor disciplined, longer-horizon approaches over speculative momentum bets.
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