JPMorgan Chase no longer expects any Fed rate cuts in 2026. Instead, the bank now predicts the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points in the third quarter of 2027.
This marks a major shift. JPMorgan previously called for a 25 bps cut in January 2026. That forecast is now gone.
The change came after Friday’s U.S. jobs data. Employment growth slowed more than expected, but unemployment dropped to 4.4% and wage growth stayed solid. In short, the labor market isn’t weakening fast enough to force the Fed’s hand.
“If the labor market weakens again in the coming months, or if inflation falls materially, the Fed could still ease later this year,” JPMorgan said.
Other Banks Delay Rate Cut Calls
JPMorgan isn’t the only one walking back earlier predictions.
Goldman Sachs pushed its rate cut forecast from March and June to June and September. The bank also cut its 12-month U.S. recession odds to 20% from 30%.
“If the labor market stabilizes as we expect, the FOMC will likely shift from risk management mode to normalization mode,” Goldman said.
Barclays and Morgan Stanley also moved their rate cut expectations to mid-2026. Morgan Stanley had previously predicted cuts in January and April.
The CME FedWatch tool shows traders now see a 95% chance the Fed holds rates at its January meeting. That’s up from 86% before the jobs report dropped.
Did Trump Threaten Powell?
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Sunday that the Trump administration threatened him with a criminal indictment. The clash adds another layer of uncertainty around the Fed’s independence.
Tuesday’s CPI data is now the next big test. Bitcoin is trading at $90,561 after giving up earlier gains, and is down 2.48% over the last week.
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