The cryptocurrency market is at risk of high volatility in the next 24 hours due to the impact of two critical developments originating from the USA. While the total market value tries to hold on to the threshold of 3.11 trillion dollars, investors’ attention is on the decisions and data coming from Washington. Employment data to be announced on the same day as the US Supreme Court’s decision on tariffs may be decisive in pricing. Accumulated positions in the options market further increase the possibility of fluctuation.
Decisions from the USA May Determine the Direction of the Market
The first critical headline of the day will be the tariff decision expected to be announced by the US Supreme Court. Tariffs ranging from 10 percent to 50 percent, introduced by US President Donald Trump in April last year, were presented as a factor that supports economic growth. The court will evaluate the legal basis of these practices and the decision may have important consequences not only for trade policy but also for financial markets.
Market-based indicators such as forecasting platform Polymarket price the chances of the tariffs being found unlawful at around 76 percent. In such a scenario, the US treasury may return some of the approximately 600 billion dollars collected so far. This possibility may lead to sudden changes in investor perception, affecting cryptocurrencies as well as stocks.
Cancellation of tariffs may strengthen the perception that growth prospects are weakening. While a possible contraction in risk appetite may cause dissolution, especially in short-term positions, the search for direction in the cryptocurrency market may accelerate.
Employment Data and Option Expiry Increase Volatility
The second important development will be the unemployment rate data to be announced in the USA. Market expectation is that the rate will decrease from 4.6 percent to 4.5 percent. While an increase above expectations could strengthen recession concerns, stronger employment data could further weaken hopes for interest rate cuts.
At current pricing, the probability of a January interest rate cut is around 13 percent. Strong employment data may completely remove this possibility from the agenda and reinforce expectations for tight monetary policy. Such a picture is seen as a macro signal that can put pressure on cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin and Ethereum option expiry on the same day may also trigger short-term movements. According to Deribit data, a total of over 2.2 billion dollars of option contracts will expire. While there are approximately $1.89 billion worth of contracts on the Bitcoin side, the maximum pain level stands out as $90,000 and the price is currently hovering just above this level. On the Ethereum front, it seems that the $396 million option is concentrated around $3,100.
