While the search for direction in the Bitcoin market continues, the latest assessment made by Ki Young Ju has caused expectations to be reshaped as we enter 2026. CryptoQuant CEO argued that new capital inflows to Bitcoin have slowed down significantly and that a stable price process that could last for a long time rather than a sharp decline has come to the fore. Following the volatile close of 2025, Bitcoin is trading just below critical recovery levels, making these comments even more meaningful for the market. According to Ju, the current picture indicates neither a sudden collapse nor a rapid rise.
Weakening of the Classical Cycle in Bitcoin
In his analysis shared from his X account, Ki Young Ju emphasized that the fresh money flow to Bitcoin is no longer as strong as in previous cycles. Stating that a significant part of the capital is directed to stocks and commodities, Ju stated that the transformation in the market structure has largely made timing-oriented strategies invalid. He pointed out that supply behavior has changed radically as institutional investors take long-term positions.
In this context, Ju also rejected concerns that large investors would shake the market with sudden sales. He especially stated that it is unrealistic to release approximately 673 thousand BTC assets held within Strategy in the short term. According to him, it has become difficult to repeat the deep retreats seen in previous bear markets.
For this reason, Ju said that he does not expect a collapse in the Bitcoin price after a sharp peak, and predicts a horizontal course that he describes as “boring” in the coming months. His warning to investors who take positions with the expectation of a short-term sharp decline is clear: Those who bet on a sudden collapse are likely to be disappointed.
On-Blockchain Data Supports Horizontal Scenario
Ju’s views also coincide with on-blockchain data. According to analyst CryptoZeno’s assessment, Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss indicator is at 0.3. This region has stood out in the past as an area of balance between recovery and renewed risk appetite. Data showing that the average investor is making limited profits indicates that excessive enthusiasm has not yet occurred.
A similar picture was also included in the Week On-Chain report published by Glassnode on January 7. The report stated that Bitcoin entered 2026 with a “cleaner” market structure, profit sales decreased and derivative positions were largely liquidated. The fact that spot ETF flows in the USA turned positive again was considered a signal of recovery, but it was emphasized that these inflows were not yet stable.
On the other hand, there is no consensus among market actors. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan thinks that the recovery in Bitcoin can continue if regulatory uncertainties in Washington decrease and there is no sharp decline in stock markets. More cautious commentators, on the other hand, are of the opinion that downside risks have not completely disappeared later in the year.
