Fresh on-chain data has stirred discussion around XRP’s short-term outlook after major exchanges recorded a net outflow of roughly 22 million XRP in the first week of the year. While this has triggered speculation about a potential supply shock, the underlying data suggest the situation is more balanced than the headlines imply.
XRP Exchange Supply Drops Slightly, Not a Supply Shock
According to crypto researcher Leonidas Hadjiloizou, XRP balances across major exchanges fell by about 0.14% since December 31. The analysis tracks large exchange-linked wallets holding at least 1 million XRP, often used as a benchmark to gauge meaningful supply shifts.
While 22 million XRP sounds substantial, it is relatively small in context. XRP consistently sees $2–$4 billion in daily trading volume. At an average price near $2.20, that equals roughly 1–2 billion XRP changing hands every day. Against that backdrop, the recent outflow accounts for only about 1% of a single day’s volume, making an immediate supply squeeze unlikely.
Adding to this view,Bill Morgan noted that XRP balances on exchanges are beginning to rise again. He suggests that increasing exchange availability could help ease supply concerns and reduce pressure tied to the supply shock narrative in the short term.
South Korea Leads the Outflows
The most notable development lies in regional exchange behavior. The bulk of XRP outflows came from South Korea, a market that has historically played a major role in driving XRP rallies.
Upbit, South Korea’s largest exchange, recorded an outflow of nearly 36 million XRP, while Bithumb saw around 8 million XRP leave its platform. Given Korean traders’ history of aggressive XRP participation, these declines may signal profit-taking or short-term repositioning rather than long-term accumulation or panic withdrawals.
Global Exchanges Show a Different Trend
Outside South Korea, exchange data tells a different story. Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, reported an inflow of nearly 28 million XRP during the same period. Crypto.com also logged inflows of approximately 9 million XRP. These opposing flows suggest XRP is being redistributed across platforms rather than exiting exchanges altogether.
Price Action Remains Fragile
Despite exchange outflows, XRP’s price has struggled. The token dropped more than 7% in 24 hours, with buying momentum fading near the $2.38–$2.40 resistance zone. This rejection has cooled short-term bullish sentiment.
That said, analyst Ali Martinez notes that a TD Sequential buy signal is beginning to play out, as XRP has bounced again. This points to easing downside pressure and the possibility of a short-term relief move following recent weakness.
Overall, the 22 million XRP exchange outflow does not indicate a true supply shock. Instead, it reflects regional shifts, profit-taking, and short-term redistribution. With XRP maintaining deep daily liquidity, price direction is likely to remain driven by broader market sentiment and technical levels rather than modest changes in exchange-held supply.
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FAQs
Outflows from a historically active market like South Korea can create short-term volatility, influencing traders’ confidence worldwide even if total supply remains stable.
Increasing XRP availability on major exchanges could reduce price pressure, making it easier for buyers and sellers to transact without sharp price swings.
Patterns of regional profit-taking can hint at investor behavior, showing whether traders are repositioning for short-term gains rather than indicating a long-term supply shortage.
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