After the longest shutdown in history, a 43-day stoppage that ended in November 2025, markets and lawmakers are now watching closely as a new funding deadline approaches.
As 2026 begins, fears of another shutdown, which were mounting, are easing, with prediction markets now showing a 26% chance of a U.S. government shutdown in January.
Funding Law Reduces the Risk
One major reason behind this calm is a funding law passed in 2025, often referred to as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. This legislation has already covered most federal spending needs through September 2026, with around 85% to 95% of expenses pre-funded.
Because of this, many government programs no longer depend on short-term funding bills. This lowers the risk that large parts of the government would shut down even if talks run into delays.
Still, this coverage isn’t complete. Lawmakers must approve additional spending bills or pass another stopgap funding resolution by January 30, 2026, or parts of the government could shut down again.
Odds of a U.S. Shutdown Drop by 26%
According to the prediction market Kalshi data, the odds of a U.S. government shutdown have declined significantly to 26% in recent days.
Just weeks ago, worries around federal funding and political delays pushed shutdown odds close to 38%, making traders more cautious and increasing market tension.
This drop suggests that markets are warming to the idea that Congress may pass a spending deal or continuing resolution in time to prevent a shutdown.
How Shutdown Fears Hit Crypto
The fears of a possible U.S. government shutdown also affected the crypto market. During the panic, the total crypto market value fell from $3.15 trillion to $2.95 trillion, wiping out nearly $200 billion.
The uncertainty made traders cautious, as shutdowns can delay important economic data and policy decisions. During this period, Bitcoin fell nearly 6%, dropping from around $93,000 to below $87,500.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs also saw heavy selling, with more than $600 million in outflows over two weeks. This added extra pressure on the market.
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