Bitcoin price returned below $89,000 a few minutes before the stock market opened. The last 2 candles of 15 minutes were formed with rapid sales. Although cryptocurrency investors have started to smile in the last 12 hours, the sales that occurred a few minutes before the stock market opened are disturbing. Let’s see if the “stock market opened, BTC fell” games will continue like in 2025. But we have a problem, and that is MSTR.
Cryptocurrency Drop
MSTR is hovering near its 52-week low and closed 2025 down ~48%. MSTR mNAV has fallen to 1.02, the potential category change by MSCI may push its mNAV below 1, which is risky. Such a development, which would prevent the company from borrowing, could push investors to sell more shares.
ETHZilla in the example mNAV We have seen how, with its decline, the company had to sell ETH and collect shares. Strategy, which has a cash reserve of over 2 billion dollars, will use its reserve fund weapon to avoid problems with dividends and other payments. But how durable will this $2 billion bumper be?
We will see many cryptocurrency reserve companies post losses due to the BTC decline, and the same will happen with large companies that are ETF investors.
MSCI Delist and Collapse
On January 15, MSCI will decide on the classification of cryptocurrency reserve companies as funds. The statements made throughout the process and MSCI’s motivation for the meeting show that the possibility of an unfavorable decision is almost certain. Although investors may not realize it today, MSTR mNAV is at 1.02, meaning it could fall below 1 even before the end of the day. This situation was something we were afraid of in recent weeks.
If it falls below 1 and MSTR shares continue to fall, the environment will be even more unfavorable for cryptocurrency investors as MSCI moves towards its delist decision. Panic selling, FUD flight and decline in MSTR shares BTC Even the potential for a downward spiral is enough to be fearful.
It is unknown what time will show, but I advise you to be cautious. Strategy BTC will announce a loss of $1 billion due to the decline in price. The decision, which will come on January 15, will cause billions of dollars of investment to exit the shares of the cryptocurrency reserve company. For MSTR alone, $3 billion of passive investment is expected to turn into sales immediately. Be prepared for volatility, you will see big fluctuation in January.
