BitcoinWhile preparing to close 2025 almost at the price level where it started, Galaxy Digital drew an unusually cautious framework for 2026. Company’s annual in the report While it was emphasized that the 2026 outlook was “too chaotic to predict”, it was noted that new peaks still remained possible. Although ETF inflows and progress on the regulatory front fueled optimism throughout the year, macro disappointments, leverage liquidations, and intense whale selling in the last quarter pulled the price back to the $80,000–$90,000 band. Galaxy’s main message is clear, and the search for direction in 2026 stands as a separate topic of uncertainty even next to the 2027 target.
Why Did Galaxy Digital Put the Brakes on Bitcoin for 2026?
Galaxy DigitalAccording to ‘s annual report, although the company predicts that Bitcoin can reach $ 250,000 by the end of 2027, it sees 2026 as more difficult to read. Galaxy Digital Research Director Alex ThornWhile he said that 2026 was too chaotic to predict, he did not completely rule out the possibility of new records being seen in the same year.
The report highlighted the assessment that the upward momentum has not fully returned. According to Galaxy, if Bitcoin cannot maintain permanence above the $100,000-$105,000 band, downside risk will remain on the table. The retreat that followed the record of $126,080 on October 6, 2025, was highlighted as a concrete example of this fragility.
Galaxy also discussed some of its 2025 predictions in the report. Expectations of exceeding $150,000 and testing $185,000 did not materialize. Additionally, Bitcoin is close to ending 2025 with a negative Sharpe ratio. spot Bitcoin ETFIt was stated that AUM reached approximately 141 billion dollars, remaining below the 250 billion dollar AUM target.
What Ends Are Options Priced For 2026?
cryptocurrency marketThe uncertainty in the market is becoming more visible in the derivatives market. Options traders see an almost equal probability of Bitcoin trading at $70,000 or $130,000 in June 2026. Expectations for the end of 2026 extend to an even wider range, between $50,000 and $250,000.
Thorn stated that these broad bands reflect uncertainty rather than a clear short-term trend. Monetary policy changes, artificial intelligence-focused capital expenditures and US midterm elections were cited as risk topics in the report. All of these were listed as external factors that make it difficult to lock the price of the largest cryptocurrency into a single scenario.
The Galaxy side still sees the possibility of a boring year positively. According to the report, downside protection is becoming more expensive compared to upside bets as volatility drops, making Bitcoin gold This indicates that it can approach similar more established market dynamics. In Thorn’s framework, whether 2026 ends at $70,000 or $150,000, it will be a period in which long-term optimism becomes stronger.
