While the technical outlook has weakened significantly on the XRP front, the price has retested the long-term demand area below $1.90. While the upward attempts could not be permanent, the structure became increasingly fragile. On the other hand, a remarkable contraction was recorded in XRP reserves on Binance, falling to the lowest level in the last six months. This divergence between technical weakness and on-chain data raises the question of where the selling pressure is exhausted.
Binance Reserves Are at Six-Month Low
Data shared by CryptoQuant analyst CryptoOnchain shows that the XRP balance held in Binance wallets decreased to approximately 2.66 billion units. The XRP Ledger Exchange Reserve chart indicates that such a low has not been seen on the exchange since July 2024. This picture suggests that the liquid supply is withdrawn from trading platforms and moved to cold wallets and the amount available for sale is shrinking.
In past cycles, sharp declines in stock market reserves laid the groundwork for stability or reaction increases in the medium term, despite fluctuating pricing in the short term. Examples are remembered where even relatively limited purchasing demand can have a disproportionate impact on the price when the available supply for sale decreases. Especially in periods when market sentiment shifted to extreme pessimism, such patterns resulted in relief rallies.
Price Pushes Critical Demand Zone
XRP is trading around $1.87 at the time of writing. The price is gradually testing the strong demand area in the $1.80–1.90 band. This region had previously been the basis of a large-scale uptrend structure. In daily indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains close to the lower band, implying that the selling pressure has weakened compared to previous weeks. However, there is no clear return confirmation yet.
The outlook is more distorted on the weekly chart. After the $3.40–$3.60 peak area, consecutive lower peaks and bottoms formed. The short-term weekly average has turned down, turning the $2.40–$2.60 range into a strong resistance area. Although the long-term averages remain below the price, the loss of momentum in recent months has significantly weakened the medium-long-term structure.
Possible Scenarios: Reaction or Breakdown?
- Reaction from Support: The $1.80–$1.90 band is the last major demand area that the bulls have to defend. If the weekly closings remain above this area, the possibility of a sharp reaction increase in the short term may increase due to the supply contraction in the stock markets. Restricting liquid supply can increase momentum, along with sudden spot purchases and closing of stuck short positions.
- Break Down: A massive sustained break below $1.80 leaves the structure open to a deeper correction towards the $1.50 area.
- Recovery Threshold: Regaining the $2.20–$2.40 band and maintaining it as support is critical for the weakening weekly outlook to have a chance at gradual recovery.
The decrease in volume suggests a tired seller profile rather than a new buyer. The simultaneous occurrence of technical pressure and contraction on the supply side indicates that the decision moment is approaching for XRP.
