The biggest cryptocurrency BitcoinAs the week passed the $90,000 threshold, the price came under technical pressure again. The prominent warning in the market gained strength as it fell below the 50-week simple moving average (SMA), a long-term trend indicator. Experienced analyst Ali Martinez Reminding that there was an average of 54 percent withdrawal in the period following the loss of the same average in previous cycles, he pointed out the possible target area as the $ 40,000 band. During the same time period, CryptoQuant data shows that recovery attempts were limited due to weak demand and an “Extreme Fear” outlook.
50-Week SMA Breakout Brings the $40,000 Scenario to the Table
According to Martinez, Bitcoin is in 50-week SMAIn previous cycles where it lost , the average was around 54 percent fell. Historical comparison based on current price levels has led to the re-emergence of the $40,000 area. The 50-week SMA is followed as a critical line separating the bullish and bearish phases of the market. Persistence below the line is associated with longer-term slimming periods rather than short-term corrections.
Rather than predicting an instant collapse, the analyst pointed out that the risk is growing. Failure to exceed the average in the coming weeks creates a framework that increases downside possibilities. The fact that weekly closings are below the indicator in question strengthens the cautious stance on the technical side.
CryptoQuant He stated that Bitcoin may be approaching the “late phase” of its post-peak correction. Weakness on the demand side restricts upward moves, and the sentiment remaining at the “Extreme Fear” level indicates that risk appetite has not recovered. Spot Bitcoin ETFAlthough inflows continue, the price reaction remains limited, which feeds the perception that spot demand dynamics do not provide the same support.
What Do On-Blockchain Signals and Other Data Say?
On the intra-blockchain data side Coinbase Premium IndexThe negative course of ‘s suggests that US-based spot demand remains low. The slowdown in “whale” inflows to major stock markets also stands out as an additional note that large-scale accumulation is weak. CryptoQuant 7–10 years BTCIt also follows the increasing mobility in the ‘s. The same pattern of behavior has been seen in the past before distribution phases or trend transitions.
The overall valuation of the analysis company is that a horizontal course with a slight downward trend is more likely until demand indicators improve. The key headlines to watch will be whether the 50-week SMA is regained, sentiment moving out of the “Extreme Fear” zone, and whether spot demand signals are strengthening.
On the other hand, before the year-end “Santa rally” expectation occurs, Binance There was a remarkable price anomaly in the stock market. On the BTC/USD1 parity, Bitcoin dropped to $24,111 in seconds, then returned above $87,500 in seconds. The movement was limited only to USD1 parity. other major BTC There was no similar decline in the markets. For those who don’t know USD1 coina new stablecoin associated with the Trump family-backed World Liberty Financial (WLFI) was identified and the pair stabilized soon after. According to experts, the event is a liquidity-related shock that does not change the fundamental dynamics. Alphractal’s Joao Wedson said similar atypical bounces can be seen more frequently in bear markets.
