Bitcoin 
$86,817.52reached a historical peak in October 2025, rising above $126,000 in nominal terms. However, this figure does not present as strong a picture as expected when the inflation effect is taken into account. The analysis shared by Galaxy Research Head of Research Alex Thorn revealed that Bitcoin could not even exceed the 100 thousand dollar limit when calculated according to 2020 dollars. According to Thorn, considering the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, Bitcoin’s inflation-adjusted peak remained at only $99,848. This determination brought the “real value” debates in the crypto market back to the agenda.
Bitcoin’s Real Performance in the Shadow of Inflation
CPI data released by the US Department of Labor shows that inflation is still a serious pressure factor. According to November data, annual inflation was at 2.7 percent, while prices of goods and services have increased approximately 1.25 times since 2020. This means that the purchasing power of a dollar has melted by 20 percent. Therefore, Bitcoin breaking a record in dollar terms does not mean an equally strong rise in real value.
On the other hand, the decline of the US Dollar Index (DXY) by 11 percent to 97.8 throughout 2025 reveals that the dollar has weakened against global currencies. The 96.3 level seen in September was recorded as the lowest of the last three years. According to analysts, this situation causes investors to turn to the strategy called “monetary meltdown trading”. In other words, investors are turning to assets with limited supply, such as Bitcoin, against the loss of value of fiat currencies.
Corporate Moves and Separation in the Market
While these discussions continued, a separate analysis published by VanEck also attracted attention. According to the company, the recent withdrawals in Bitcoin are a healthy market reset rather than a crash. Although there is a weakening in on-chain data and miner participation, clearing overly leveraged transactions from the market strengthens liquidity in the long term. The interesting point is the divergence in investor behavior: while there are outflows from stock market investment products, it is noteworthy that company balance sheets are aggressively purchasing Bitcoin.
In addition, the emergence of new drafts for crypto regulations in the USA and Europe leads to fluctuation in price expectations for 2026. While some analysts argue that Bitcoin may decline to $65,000 due to regulatory uncertainty, long-term investors continue to maintain their positions. This situation reminds us of the periods of “miner capitulation” and low risk appetite that were frequently seen in the past before price stability.
As a result, Bitcoin’s inflation-adjusted peak remaining below $100,000 provides a more realistic framework rather than weakening the crypto’s role as a “store of value.” Analyzes made with real data instead of nominal figures can help investors manage their expectations more healthily. Although fluctuations may continue in the short term, the continuation of institutional interest stands out as the most important element supporting Bitcoin’s long-term narrative.
