Bitcoin 
$87,392.89 networkAccording to VanEck’s new report supported by historical data, the slowdown in mining activity in Turkey may be a “reverse indicator” for the price. VanEck In the study titled “Mid-December 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck”, analysts emphasized that Bitcoin produces positive returns more frequently in the periods following hashrate declines. Data shows that hashrate decreased by 4 percent in the one-month period until December 15, 2025, and this was the sharpest decline since April 2024. While the price remains volatile during the same period, the withdrawals of institutional and long-term investors are considered as buying opportunities.
Why is Hashrate Drop Considered a “Reverse Indicator”?
VanEck analysts found a striking asymmetry in 90-day forward Bitcoin returns measured since 2014. Accordingly, the network hashrateWhile the probability of a positive return increased to 65 percent as the hashrate decreased, the same rate remained at 54 percent. The report stated that declines in hashrate more often coincide with more favorable results for long-term investors.
The study explains this relationship with the concept of “miner capitulation”. The view that comes to the fore is that some of the selling pressure was priced in at an early stage when high-cost operators under financial pressure left the network, and then the supply balance was able to settle on a healthier basis. VanEck, hashrate jamHe stated that in examples where the trend continues for a long time, forward-looking returns tend to occur both more frequently and higher.
The current picture was brought to the agenda again with the hashrate falling by 4 percent in the month until December 15, 2025. According to the report, a withdrawal of the same scale was last seen in April 2024. Analysts are of the opinion that data alone does not guarantee direction, but the historical pattern should not be ignored.
Buyer Profile is Changing as Miners Squeeze
VanEck, miner profitabilityHe states that the price has deteriorated with the weak course of Bitcoin. For example, the breakeven electricity cost for a mid-generation device such as the Antminer S19 The decline in the break-even cost indicates that the sustainability of businesses operating with more expensive electricity is weakening.
On the price side, volatility continues. Bitcoin continues to fluctuate in the shadow of the $126,080 peak recorded a month ago, after falling to around $81,000 on November 21. CryptoAppsy According to data, the largest cryptocurrencyThe price is trading at $87,554, decreasing by 1.66 percent in the last 24 hours.
The report emphasized that despite the pressure on miners, long-term institutional buyers met the supply. Digital asset treasuries, briefly called DAT, purchased approximately 42,000 BTC from mid-November to mid-December, bringing their total assets to approximately 1.09 million units. BTCIt was also recorded in the report that it increased to . While this purchase stands out as the strongest monthly accumulation after the increase exceeding 128,000 BTC in the mid-July-mid-August 2025 period, VanEck stated that in the future, many DATs may turn to financing their BTC purchases with preferred share sales proceeds instead of the issuance of common shares.
