Fidelity’s Global Macro Director Jurien TimmerBitcoin, which has been optimistic for a long time 
$87,270.31 He hardened his tone, saying the risk of a “crypto winter” in 2026 is rising. According to Timmer, the October peak at around $125,000 fit remarkably into Bitcoin’s four-year cycles in both price and time. In his assessment shared on his He marked the critical support band as the range of $ 65,000-75,000.
Timmer: Four-Year Cycle May Be Completed
At the center of Timmer’s thesis is Bitcoin block reward halving It is believed that it exhibits a repetitive rhythm around four-year cycles. In his words, when analogy and time-based comparisons are taken together, the current cycle shows close alignment with previous periods.
Stating that the all-time high of approximately $125,000 in October came after a cumulative rise of approximately 145 months, Timmer stated that this timing was within an “expected” framework. In the same evaluation Bitcoin He stated that “winter” periods mostly last about a year, so the momentum may remain weak in 2026.
While Timmer emphasized that he did not completely abandon his long-term approach and said that he remained a “secular bull”, he stated that his concern was concentrated on the point that the four-year block reward halving phase may be completed in terms of both price and time.
Gold Shows Strength While Bitcoin Weakens
Timmer points out weakness on Bitcoin front in 2025 goldHe compared it to the strong performance of . According to current data, gold has risen approximately 65 percent since the beginning of the year, outpacing the increase in global money supply. Timmer this bull market interpreted it as behavior.
Stating that gold preserved most of its gains in the recent retreat, Timmer argued that this resilience is a typical uptrend feature. In the same context, he added that the expectation of a “mean reversion” between gold and Bitcoin in the short term remains weak.
Based on this picture, Timmer drew a more cautious scenario for Bitcoin in the short term, highlighting the $ 65,000–75,000 band. He said that 2026 could be a breathing period in the cycle after the block reward halving.
