When Trump said inflation would drop, not many people cared. When he said that customs tariffs would not have an inflationary effect, that’s exactly what happened. However, Fed members saw that tariffs were not that inflationary, and while understanding this, they made limited interest rate cuts. At this point today, Trump has been proven right and cryptocurrencies are rising.
Cryptocurrencies Are Rising
After inflation figures came in much lower than expected BTC price It rose above 89 thousand dollars. Although it is too early to be happy, these data of cryptocurrencies quite in favor. So why is it too early to rejoice? First of all, risk markets continue to be under the influence of carry trade discussions as Japan will increase interest rates tomorrow. To summarize the situation in items, this is as follows:
- japan interest will increase and this will challenge the risk markets while fueling the carry trade debates.
- BTC is still below the support point of the bear flag and the extreme rejection at $94,000 has technically paved the way for a test below $80,000.
- Inflation Although it is well below expectations, Core Inflation is still at March 2025 levels, so the rise only seems to have stopped. Moreover, inflation was at 1.4% in January 2021, and although current inflation is approaching 2%, it has remained above the 2% target for 4 years.
- In January, MSCI will classify shares of cryptocurrency reserve companies as funds, and for companies like Strategy and BitMine, this sucks.
- In January, the Supreme Court will likely rule against Trump on tariffs. This situation will not only exacerbate uncertainty and fear, but will also cause all the chaos we experienced throughout 2025 to be wasted.
Moreover, the ongoing fear and risk aversion are related to the fact that negative developments in the future are already covering the markets. However, as the news will come true after the Japanese interest rate decision, which will come at 07:30 tomorrow morning, the market may start pricing the crypto-favorable details in the employment and inflation reports. So, it would not be surprising to see an increase as we move towards the last days of the year.
Details of the US Inflation Report
Below you see the core inflation reports for the last 5 years. We are one report short due to the government shutdown, and inflation, which peaked at 6.6% in 2022, has finally reached its lowest level this year. But it is still far from the lows of early 2021 and the Fed’s 2% target.
Inflation, which fell to 2.6% in November 2025, fell below this year’s lowest level of 2.8% and reached its lowest level since March 2021. The expectation of 3% caused the market to turn the corner in favor of crypto. The BLS did not collect October 2025 data due to the 43-day government shutdown.
“The seasonally adjusted index for all items, except food and energy, increased by 0.2% in the 2-month period ending in November. From September to November, the housing index increased by 0.2%. In the same 2-month period, the energy index increased by 1.1 percent and the food index increased by 0.1 percent. Other indices that increased in the 2-month period ending in November include household goods and business, communication and personal care. On the other hand, accommodation outside the home, entertainment and clothing indices decreased in the same 2-month period. All “The items index increased by 2.7% in the 12-month period until the end of November, after increasing by 3.0% in the 12-month period until the end of September. The all-items index, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.6% in the last 12 months. The energy index increased by 4.2% in the 12-month period until the end of November, and the food index increased by 2.6% in the last year.” – BLS
