December 10 has arrived. Expectations for today’s interest rate decision by the Fed have been extremely volatile in recent weeks. Following the statements made by the NY Fed President, everyone expected interest rates to be kept constant before the reduction expectation exceeded 80%. BTC is above $92 thousand, so what to expect today?
December 10 Fed Interest Rate Decision
This meeting is extra important as interest rate projections will also be announced. With the publication of quarterly economic forecasts and dot charts, we will see the short, medium and long-term expectations of Fed members. Fed officials publish dotplot charts regarding the basic economic outlook and appropriate monetary policy only four times a year. The meeting in December is the most important of these four important meetings because today they will announce their comments on the path followed throughout the year.
In other words, the decisions they make in most years do not reflect their full views, but today we will see which of them participated in the steps taken this year and to what extent. All 19 Fed officials will share their expectations and the decision will be made by a vote of 12. Last December, four participants wrote a rate 25 basis points higher than the interest rate set by the committee, although only one of them dissented, although they showed that they did not agree with this reduction at the time. Today’s situation will be much more complicated because we have 1 voting member who wants an extreme reduction and 1 who is considering an increase. Moreover, the difference of opinion among Fed members has grown even more according to the statements we have seen in the last 4 weeks.
So “what should we pay attention to today?” you say. Nick Timiraos answers this as follows;
“When the forecasts are released at 2 p.m., look at the 2025 column of the dot chart. If the committee cuts to between 3.5% and 3.75% as expected, anyone who ticks 3.875% (the middle of the current 3.75% to 4% range) will be quietly saying they’re waiting. Count them. In a unanimous decision, you’ll see that all 19 points are in the same place. Last December, there were four points one notch higher.” This time, this number can show you how fragile the consensus really is.”
Fed Hours before the meeting, Trump, in his statements at 02:00 CET, asked “Scott Bessent to investigate whether the commissions of the people Biden appointed to the Fed were signed with e-signatures and whether this would cause their dismissal.” “Maybe I’m wrong, but we’ll check this out,” Trump said. If there are people appointed through autopen, Trump should cancel it and replace them with his own appointments. to interest policy We can see that it confuses the risk markets as it brings in names that support it and fuels debates about the Fed’s independence.
Expectations in Cryptocurrencies
Powell’s statements will be extremely important for cryptocurrencies. The messages he will give for 2026 and what he will say about monetary expansion are quite critical. If it focuses on the recovery in employment, the assumption that we will see 2 or less reductions next year is being priced. cryptocurrencies falls. The analyst with the pseudonym AlphaBTC said:
“Weak employment data yesterday interest rate reduction While their hopes were shaken a bit, traditional financial markets also became uneasy; All eyes are now on the Fed and wage data. If the Fed turns surprisingly hawkish or wages remain flat, another selloff could be expected.
FOMC Economic Forecasts — Updated dot plot: crucial for rate cut expectations.
FOMC Statement — Tone (hawkish/dovish) yields could move USD and stocks.
FOMC Press Conference — Powell Q&A usually causes second-wave volatility.”
Bitcoin 
$86,989.86 What we will watch for is $98 thousand, where the 50-day simple moving average is. To overcome this, $93,300 must remain as support and the path to $108,000 must be opened when 50SMA is exceeded. The moving averages are drawing a clear path for us. The SMA200 level is at $108k and this is the important supply zone. The annual opening level of 94 thousand dollars is an important resistance point, but even though the bulls tried yesterday, they could not overcome it.
In the negative scenario, a loss of $90,000 could lead to a decline extending to $87,500. Then, while BTC fell to 84 thousand dollars, altcoins experienced another devastation. AlphaBTC wrote the following on this subject;
“Nice pullback in BTC, back to support. I’m still targeting the 97-98k level from a few weeks ago. BUT Bitcoin must maintain the 91,500 level now, otherwise there will be bloodshed on the charts.”
