A slight but steady recovery atmosphere dominates the new week in the cryptocurrency market. Total market value increased by 3% in the last 24 hours to $3.2 trillion. Bitcoin 
$86,989.86 Ethereum rose 2.3% to $92,496 
$2,804.64 It gained 6% and reached $3,312. Solana, on the other hand, continued its strong climb by settling at $ 138 with an increase of 3.9%.
Fed Decision Will Be a Direction Determiner in the Market
Movement was more evident in mid-cap altcoins. Zcash up 11% to $440, Avalanche 
$12.95 It rose by 6.2% to $14, while Monero increased by 5.4% to $390. The atmosphere of fear in the market also started to decrease; The Crypto Fear & Greed Index moved out of the “extreme fear” zone, rising from 22 to 26. However, the liquidation of $429 million indicates that traders are aggressively adjusting their leverage.
At the center of all this activity is the Fed’s December 2025 interest rate decision, which will be announced today. While the markets expect a 25 basis point reduction with a near 100% probability, the main question of interest is the policy outlook for 2026.
If the 25 basis point cut is supported by a dovish dot chart predicting multiple rate cuts in 2026, liquidity in the markets is likely to increase significantly. In this scenario, it is stated that Bitcoin may move to the $ 92,000-95,000 band and volatility may jump with short position liquidations exceeding $ 120 million.
On the other hand, CryptoQuant analysts are of the opinion that caution should be exercised. After the interest rate cut in September, Bitcoin first reached its peak in four weeks and then retreated by approximately $ 2,000. A similar “buy the rumor, sell the news” effect was observed in October. Analysts state that this possibility is still on the table today.
Short-Term Forecasts from Experts
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee puts his year-end target in the $100,000-$110,000 range, saying he expects a post-decision relief rally. CoinDCX Research also predicts an upside potential of up to 22% with similar optimism and gives a target of $ 111,000 in the base scenario. It is thought that if there are strong inflows into spot ETFs again, the price may extend to the range of $ 130,000-140,000.
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood is more cautious. He states that Bitcoin must maintain its $ 87,000 support, otherwise there may be a harsh correction if the Fed signals less reductions for 2026.
Meanwhile, another notable development in the market was the $280 million outflow in Grayscale’s spot Bitcoin ETF recently. This move, combined with Fed uncertainty, shows that investors have started to avoid risk in the short term.
CryptoQuant states that the short-term direction will be determined by leverage ratios, exchange reserves and ETF inflows and outflows. It is stated that liquidity is still mixed and the direction of the price will be determined by the messages given by Fed Chairman Powell.
As a result, the market is focused on the Fed decision and both large investors and retail traders are remaining cautious. There is a strong basis for an increase, but considering the volatility created by the last two interest rate cuts, a harsh direction choice in the short term seems inevitable. If liquidity conditions improve, the psychological $100,000 target for Bitcoin may come to the fore again; Otherwise, short-term corrections may test investors.
