The critical macro development highlighted by crypto commentator Austin Hilton has turned the focus of XRP investors back to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this week. While the expectations in the market have reached their peak before the interest rate decision to be announced on Wednesday, experts agree that XRP may be directly affected by this decision.
Fed’s Interest Rate Decision: Why Is It Important for XRP?
Although Hilton acknowledges that investors may be tired of macroeconomic commentary, he emphasizes that this week will be decisive for the crypto market. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a rate cut has increased from 87% to 89.6%. The expectation is that the Fed will cut 25 basis points.
Stating that the market has largely priced in this expectation, Hilton warns, “If the Fed surprises and does not reduce interest rates, there may be a sharp retreat in the markets.” In the opposite scenario, that is, if an interest rate cut comes as expected, it is stated that the initial reaction may be limited, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s statements will determine the direction of the markets.
XRP, on the other hand, decreased between 1.3% and 1.6% before the decision. However, according to Hilton, the interest rate cut to be announced may support the financial conditions necessary for the continuation of a possible bull market.
Bank of Japan and Global Risks
In addition to the Fed decision, the other important date on which all eyes are focused is December 19, that is, the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The fact that Japan is considering increasing interest rates, which have been near zero for more than 20 years, means a new wave of uncertainty for global finance.
Hilton draws attention to the impact of Japan’s possible interest rate increase on the “yen carry trade”, which is one of the main reasons for the instability in the markets last week. The unraveling of this strategy could reduce global risk appetite, creating new volatility in both stocks and crypto.
Another development that supports this view is the latest inflation data announced in the USA. Core inflation, which was slightly above expectations, strengthened the possibility that the Fed may not initiate an aggressive reduction process. This is especially the case with Bitcoin 
$86,989.86 and it has created a cautious outlook in altcoins.
Hilton said that crypto assets may follow a horizontal course until the Fed meeting, Bitcoin and Ethereum 
$2,804.64He states that continues to hold above critical support levels, and stronger movements are seen in some small-scale tokens.
Current Outlook on XRP
Another development that has attracted attention on the XRP front in recent hours is intra-chain mobility. A large whale address reportedly transferred over $25 million worth of XRP to the exchange. Analysts emphasize that this move may create a short-term selling pressure, but the general direction of the market will depend on macro developments due to the decision week. The price continues to trade in a narrow band as of the news time.
