This week’s Top crypto analysis highlights a market sitting at a critical turning point as Bitcoin/USD futures open interest drops to yearly lows and traders prepare for the final FOMC decision of 2025. With indicators recovering and major assets reacting ahead of the announcement, sentiment is shifting rapidly across the broader crypto market.
Futures Market Signals Potential Opportunity
According to recent data, open interest in Bitcoin futures has fallen to its lowest level of the year, signaling what many traders view as an attractive environment for discounted positioning.
Historically, such deep reductions in open interest are tied to capitulation or apathy, the conditions that often precede major market turning points.
Yet, despite what appears to be a “healthy futures market,” concerns remain. A December 3rd post on X noted that the market lacks fresh liquidity inflows, even as numerous onchain charts of key metrics lean bearish.
Without renewed macro liquidity, the broader setup risks shifting into an extended bearish cycle. The tension now lies in whether a catalyst will appear in time to reverse the current trajectory.
All eyes are now on December 10th, when the Federal Reserve will deliver its final rate decision of the year. Markets hint at a 0.25% rate cut, a move that could act as the spark the crypto sector has been waiting for. However, if it cuts beyond expectations, such as a 0.50% cut, a significant supply squeeze could ensue.
But, on the conservative note, should the 0.25% rate cut materialize, traders expect renewed strength across Bitcoin/USD and the altcoin market, as macro conditions often align with attempts at a recovery.
This anticipation is already reflected in short-term price action. Nearly 48 hours ahead of the FOMC event, several leading assets turned bullish during intraday trading. Bitcoin price analysis on intraday shows that it climbed 4.30%, while Ethereum/USD surged 7%.
The same trend occurred with other top altcoins, with Cardano/USD gaining 6.60% and XRP/USD advancing 5.15%. These synchronized moves signal that traders are positioning early for the potential impact of the FOMC announcement.
Indicators Show Early Signs of Recovery Across Major Assets
From a technical standpoint, multiple indicators across BTC, ETH, ADA, and XRP suggest the early stages of a recovery phase. The onchain chart metrics based sentiment might be cautious for now, but price momentum indicators such as RSI, MACD, AO, and CMF have flipped upward across all four assets.
Furthermore, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have breached their 20-day EMA bands, while Cardano and XRP/USD are approaching theirs. This shift in structure reinforces the possibility that the market may already be preparing for a more defined rebound, which is, at this point, conditional on macroeconomic confirmation.
Although uncertainty remains, the alignment of improving indicators, futures market reset, and pre-event bullishness positions this moment as a significant inflection point in the ongoing Top crypto analysis for December 2025.
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