late monday Bitcoin 
$86,989.86‘s fall below the $83,000 threshold, combined with weak liquidity, weekend macro concerns originating from Japan, and uncertainty about MSCI methodology, turned into a rapid and irregular decline. The price attempted to stabilize above $85,000 during Asian hours on Tuesday morning. XRP, Ethereum 
$2,804.64, Cardano 
$0.390406, solana And BNBLosses reached up to 2 percent. According to market actors, the trigger for the decline was the shallow order book and fragile market structure rather than classical macro headlines.
What’s Happening in the Market?
CEO of VALR Farzam EhsaniHe stated that the decline accelerated as a result of the collision of the fragile market structure and weak liquidity conditions over the weekend. The lack of depth in the order book thinned the buffer against a new liquidity shock, and the spreads increased in a short time, magnifying the impact of the sales. If it persists below approximately $80,500, which is viewed as the technical threshold for the short term, the target range of $64,000, which some investors draw attention to, may come onto the agenda.
Leverage indicators on spot and derivative side CryptoQuant And glassnode According to the data, it is decreasing. While some of the structural risk has decreased, directional uncertainty has not been fully resolved. The divergence in crypto currency indexed product flows draws attention. Solana ETFWhile ‘s have recorded net inflows for five weeks since the end of October, the total increase has exceeded the $600 million threshold. Spot XRP ETFCumulative inflows exceeded the level of 666 million. Still, overall market sentiment was reflected in November’s performance, with Bitcoin ending the month down 17.5 percent.
Structural Risk: Possible MSCI Decision
There is a second issue in focus for investors, which is the expected decision of MSCI regarding the possibility of excluding companies with high crypto assets on their balance sheets from the indices. covered Strategy, marathon, riot, metaplanet And American Bitcoin The total amount of cryptocurrencies held by players like these exceeds 137 billion dollars. This figure corresponds to approximately 5 percent of Bitcoin in circulation. A possible revision in the classification could lead to forced adjustments on index-linked funds, creating a sell-off in company shares, rebalancing of the index composition, and short-term imbalance in the overall market.
Ehsani stated that the impact of mandatory flows is already being discussed while the possible rule change is being priced. A shock before the market depth strengthens may cause the thresholds to break faster. It is said that in the scenario of continuation of sales, the $ 60,000-65,000 band can be tested. On the other hand, if corporate desks and competitors like Strategy show volume buying appetite in this region, there may be a basis for recovery from the bottom.
