While the volatile course seen in the cryptocurrency market in recent weeks has put many altcoins under pressure, Monero (XMR), one of the privacy-focused projects, has demonstrated a remarkable performance. Monero, which gained approximately 10 percent in value in the last seven days, has recovered by 30 percent from its bottom level on November 21. XMR, traded at $419, has increased by over 115 percent since the beginning of the year. Despite this, the fact that Monero is still 22.7 percent below its historical peak of $ 542, which it saw about eight years ago, shows that caution should be exercised despite the rise.
Futures Move Monero
The general recovery wave in privacy cryptocurrencies, which started at the beginning of October, initially led to sharp increases in projects such as Zcash (ZEC) and Dash (DASH). While ZEC gained over 1,600 percent in a short time and rose to $723, Dash climbed to $145 in the same period. However, the sharp corrections that followed these sharp rises pulled these assets back down again. While many privacy coins are in the red on a weekly basis today, the only major project that diverged positively was Monero. This chart indicates that investors are moving their profits out of other assets and into XMR.
It seems that not only spot purchases but also the futures market are heavily influential behind the recent rise in Monero. Data on derivative markets reveal that there has been a significant increase, especially in leveraged positions. In the last 24 hours, the open interest in Monero futures increased by approximately 10 percent to $70 million. This figure was at $55 million about a week ago. This rapid growth in open positions indicates that speculative interest is strengthening and investors are starting to take higher risks.
But experts warn that such rises could be fragile. Futures-led rallies can be prone to sharp reversals unless supported by strong spot demand. Large-scale position closings may cause the price to make sharp downward movements in a short time. Therefore, the recent rally in Monero, although technically strong, could quickly be reversed if market-wide weakness continues.
Technical Indicators Strong, Market Fragile
Looking at the daily charts, an important technical signal stands out for Monero. When the 50-day simple moving average rises above the 200-day average, a “golden intersection” formation is formed. In crypto markets, this pattern has often been considered a harbinger of strong medium- and long-term rises in the past. In addition, MACD, one of the momentum indicators, continues its upward movement by making a positive intersection. Aroon indicators also show that the upward pressure is high and the downward pressure is limited. If this technical structure is maintained, it is possible that Monero will make a new attack towards the $ 500 level.
On the other hand, pressures on privacy coins in the industry are also coming to the fore again. Recent news that some major exchanges are considering removing privacy-focused cryptocurrencies from their lists due to regulatory concerns has caused anxiety on the investor side. The tightening of controls on anonymous transfers, especially on European-based platforms, stands out as a medium-term risk factor for Monero and similar projects.
