Bitcoin 
$90,846.46 It has suffered a sharp depreciation in recent weeks, seriously testing investor confidence. The leading cryptocurrency, which has fallen by more than 20 percent in the last month, has fallen by over 40 percent in total since its peak of over 126 thousand dollars in early October. November was recorded as the worst performance period for Bitcoin since June 2022. At that time, the crypto market was going through a deep crisis. In the last decline, the price fell to the 80 thousand dollar range, causing the lowest level of the last seven months to be seen.
Corporate Outflows and Support Signals
One of the most important reasons behind the weakness in Bitcoin price stands out as institutional fund movements. In particular, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF recorded an outflow of approximately $2.2 billion in November. Analysts state that ETF withdrawals cause technical support levels to break faster, leading to increased stress in the market.
In its latest assessment, JPMorgan emphasized that macroeconomic conditions now affect crypto prices more than the traditional four-year halving cycle. According to the bank, in the past, while early-stage projects grew with large private funding rounds, individual investors entered the market at more expensive levels. Today, while individual participation has decreased significantly, institutional investors largely provide the depth of the market.
However, some institutions maintain their long-term stance. ARK Invest increased its position in the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, purchasing more than 70 thousand new shares. This step shows that confidence in Bitcoin continues in the long term, despite difficult market conditions. In addition, the fact that JPMorgan is preparing a structured bond indexed to IBIT, the Bitcoin ETF managed by BlackRock, is being watched carefully in the market. While some investors see this as a short-term speculative move, others interpret it as deepening institutional interest.
Strategy Discussion and December Scenarios
Another hot topic in the market was Strategy. According to the report published by JPMorgan, the company may face the risk of fund outflow of up to $2.8 billion if it is removed from MSCI indices. Approximately $9 billion of the company’s $50 billion market value is tied to passive funds that follow these indices. Despite the large $19 billion liquidation wave in October, Strategy did not step back and continued to purchase Bitcoin.
The company’s CEO, Michael Saylor, argues that Strategy should be considered as an operational company with software revenues, not as a fund. According to Saylor, Bitcoin is not a passive asset for the company, but a productive treasury tool, and purchases will continue despite high volatility.
On the technical side, experienced trader Peter Brandt states that the recent price movements resemble the “dead cat bounce” formation, but he maintains his bullish expectation in the long term. While the 80 thousand dollar level is watched as the closest strong support, falling below this region may trigger a new decline towards the 70 thousand dollar band. In a harsher selling wave, the $60-65 thousand range is seen as the last line of defense.
In addition to this picture, the latest inflation data announced in the USA came above expectations and the postponement of interest rate cut hopes also put pressure on the crypto market. These developments on the macroeconomic front are among the main factors that will determine the direction of Bitcoin in December.
