We see evaluations from different perspectives regarding the recent decline in cryptocurrencies. Today we will examine what QCP sees in the decline. BTC made a major bottom approaching $80k last week and the sell-off was extremely rapid. So what are the analysts’ evaluations?
QCP Cryptocurrency Review
Fed’s interest rate reduction Predictions changed very quickly last week. First, the possibility of keeping the interest rate constant and then reducing it exceeded 70%. QCP analysts think that the possibility of a rate cut has increased as a result of the dovish statements made by Williams and Miran on Friday. However, what is important here is that someone as important as Williams, the Vice President of the Fed, made very clear dovish statements. Although Miran’s stance did not change, Williams started to take an extremely dovish position.
“Macroeconomic winds are turning and being a liquidity-sensitive asset BTC He starts to smell the opportunities. Still, after falling more than 30% in recent weeks and breaking several key supports, BTC technically remains bearish. However, derivative positions paint a more nuanced picture.”
- $1.23 billion BTC-26DECC25-85k
- $1.05 billion BTC-26DEC25-140k
- $849 million BTC-26DEC25-120k
- $765 million BTC-26DEC25-200k
- $738 million BTC-26DEC25-130k
“Traders appear to be hedging for both outcomes, hedging against further declines while being exposed to a possible rally towards the end of the year reminiscent of 2021, when BTC doubled shortly after losing over 30% in value in a month.
The maximum pain level for end-December contracts is at 104k. “With BTC Option OI at record highs and volatility trending upward, this level may hold more significance this time.” – QCP
Explaining the situation in options, analysts point out that the conditions for perp futures have changed. The weakening of long-term leverage and the turning of funding rates into negative may prevent the onset of larger declines in the oversold zone.
What are the expectations?
As we announced in the weekly calendar, US markets will be closed for 1.5 days due to Thanksgiving. We have less than 3 days to see whether the recovery that started on Friday will continue.
“Weekend recoveries have historically been unreliable as the market waits to mark the bottom. We will be watching closely to see if the selling pressure in the US subsides and if Friday’s BTC ETF inflows are the beginning of a trend reversal after weeks of record outflows.”
The November 21 ETF inflow was positive, it will be important for this to continue. Delayed PPI report for September on Tuesday cryptocurrencies will be monitored closely.
