cryptocurrency It’s been another terrible day for investors, and the decline accelerated following the US market open. Today is an important day. We followed Trump’s statements and now the Fed minutes have been published. The most important Nvidia earnings report of the year will be published at 00:20. It is possible that we will see over $1 billion in liquidations over the next 24 hours. Currently, only $540 million has been liquidated.
Fed Minutes Breaking News
The minutes were just published, and just before that, there was a development that caused a decline in cryptocurrencies. The BLS announcement, which I shared on our Telegram channel, caused the December interest rate cut expectation to decrease again. Of course, this situation brought about a decline in cryptocurrencies. What was that announcement? BLS (US Department of Labor) October employment report CANCELED announced. From where? They are unable to prepare the report due to the government shutdown. When was the last time it happened? In 2013. For the first time since then, the monthly employment report will not be published.
What do we have? month of september employment report However, this is a report that was barely prepared due to the closure and is considered reliable. So why did cryptocurrencies fall? If there is no updated employment report, the Fed will have to make its second “blind drive” after October. Powell said that if we are forced to drive blindly, we may have to keep interest rates steady. In other words, the December interest rate decision will be to keep interest rates constant unless the September employment report to be published at 16:30 on Thursday is extremely below expectations. Because interest rate decision It will arrive on December 10, and we will not see another major report that will shape the interest rate decision until that day. Although QT will end in December, interest rate cuts will pause again. According to Polymarket, the probability that the Fed will not cut interest rates in December has risen to 68% after the US Labor Department canceled the October employment report. FedWatch says there is only a 33% chance of a discount.
Okay now Fed minutes Let’s move on to the details. Below you can see the important sections:
- Fed Minutes: Many participants supported the October rate cut, but some preferred to keep interest rates unchanged.
- Fed Minutes: Almost all participants stated that it was appropriate to end the balance sheet reduction program on December 1.
- A few participants stated that a rate cut in December might be appropriate.
- Several participants highlighted the possibility of a disorderly decline in stock prices, especially in the event of a sudden reassessment of AI-related expectations.
- Most participants preferred that the Fed portfolio match its current mix of Treasury securities.
- Some participants favored a disproportionately larger share of T-bills, citing the benefits of providing greater flexibility.
- Many stated that a rate cut in December would not be appropriate.
- The economic outlook prepared by Fed staff for the October meeting predicts that real GDP growth will be slightly stronger through 2028 compared to September forecasts.
- Many participants stated that, according to their predictions, it would be appropriate to keep interest rates constant for the rest of the year.
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