After the rapid decline, Bitcoin experienced an increase of approximately 3 thousand dollars today, as expected. Such a turn was expected as fear and panic reached their peak. Ki Young Ju, who is closely followed in the on-chain field, tries to understand the present day of cryptocurrencies based on 10 metrics.
Cryptocurrency Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) 
$90,927.60 price At the time of writing, it was around 93 thousand dollars and rose slightly after the US stock market opened. Many analysts were now saying that they expected a return from the bottom at these levels, albeit in the short term. Ki Young Ju summarized many metrics by which we can understand the current situation, both on the futures and spot side, and helps us understand what is happening.
Futures
- The average order size shows that the whales are withdrawing from the market in futures trading. Individual investors are in a dominant position compared to before.
- IFP data shows that BTC flows from spot exchanges to futures exchanges have collapsed. We have moved away from the days when whales used BTC as collateral to take long positions and feed the rise.
- Traders have made huge gains from ETF and institutional flows.
- Futures open interest is still above last year and the total funding rate is neutral. In other words, the perception that there is incredible negativity on the futures side seems empty.
Spot Markets
- Coinbase Premiumis at a nine-month low, likely due to ETF-driven institutional selling. As the negativity increased, the decline became more severe, but at some point, US investors must get back in the game. It has always been that way in the past.
- ETF weekly flows are negative for a third week.
- Strategy mNAV is at 1.23, so it seems difficult to increase capital and buy more BTC in the short term. We saw weeks ago that ETHZilla had to sell ETH due to mNAV negativity, let’s hope this does not spread to reserve companies.
On-Chain
- BTC The market value increase has stopped for three days.
- Market value is slower than realized cap growth. This confirms the strong selling pressure on the on-chain side.
- PnL Index turned short on November 8; whales get their profits. If cycle theory is valid, the bottom of the cycle will be around 56K. The realized price is in this region.
Cryptocurrency Predictions
After looking at the metrics, Ki Young Ju also listed his predictions. The analyst thinks that we must face that short-term conditions are weak, negative due to the weakening of dollar liquidity, tightness in funding markets and the cooling of BTC inflows. However, this does not mean that the markets will collapse with constant net outflows.
On-chain analysts do not expect to see sustained outflows over the next six months. And he also said;
“If interest rate cuts or any talk of easy money emerges, market sentiment could reverse and liquidity could flow back into ETFs. The adoption of stablecoins and a wave of reverse ICOs by publicly traded companies could push traditional assets into DEXs.
The crypto ecosystem was previously only on TradFi can be reorganized around traded assets. Bitcoin will benefit the most, while altcoins with weak rhetoric or no real performance will likely lose liquidity.”
