Bitcoin 
$95,650.36 price Today, after the sudden rise of 2 thousand dollars, it gradually decreased and returned to where it started after the US market opening. We are living interesting days and we haven’t seen movements of several thousand dollars in a minute for a long time. This tells us that something big is coming. More broadly, a true bear market may be what markets need.
Bear Season Need
Both cryptocurrencies There is no continuous rise for stocks either. We have seen sustained rises for a long time, more intense in stocks and weaker in crypto. After short-term declines, the stock market broke continuous records. This situation was made abundantly clear after the ChatGPT launch at the end of 2022.
It is unclear when bear markets will begin for US markets. However, when you look back, you see that there have been only limited declines followed by rapid rises in the last 16 years. It took 66 months for the S&P 500 index to return to its previous peak after the mortgage crisis. Then we saw five short declines.
There have been 26 bear markets in the last century, including this year’s limited declines. For the stock market, bear markets require an average of 81 months for ATH if they coincide with a recession. If there is no recession, the average duration is 21 months. In the last 16 years, this has only taken an average of 8 months.
Cryptocurrency Bear Markets
The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index is up 255% in 17 months. Gains in AI and related companies were much greater. However, today, many things such as the cost of turning the win-win wheel between AI and technology infrastructure companies, excessive valuations, the peak of 10-year bonds in Japan, tell us that bear markets are close.
To all this trump We also need to add the negativities associated with it. For example, tariffs Supreme Court Its imminent cancellation will trigger great chaos. If a bear market is starting, it will start rightfully so for the reasons we mentioned above. Of course, cryptocurrencies will also see destruction in this risk-off period.
However, the good thing about bear markets is that they clear the vulnerabilities and solidify the ground for a healthier, stronger rise. So, considering things like overvaluations, costly win-win situation, etc., the easiest way is to go down.
If we look at the last 16 years, such bear markets will not last very long. That is, unless there is a much greater destruction than expected. mortgage crisis or dotcom bubble If we are not on the verge of something like this, markets can find their way after a healthy correction. We can compare this to the comments we hear from earthquake experts about ruptures and earthquakes that cause fault relief.
