Bitcoin 
$95,650.36 It is heading towards the inevitable end and it tested 92 thousand dollars. If recovery from current levels does not start, we may see a deeper correction extending to $88 and $85 thousand. This will be painful for altcoins. ETH It is already about to lose the 3 thousand dollar threshold. So, what are the predictions for the Non-Farm Employment data on Thursday?
The Importance of Bitcoin and US Data
December interest rate cut expectations have decreased significantly in the last 10 days. Japanese 10-year bonds have been running to new highs for 7 days and the artificial intelligence bubble story is finding plenty of buyers in the stock market. While the appetite of cryptocurrency investors, which was severely damaged in the October 10 sales, has already decreased, the BTC chart is pushing 92 thousand dollars today, as the sales of long-term investors have accelerated. Moreover, the strawberry on the cake will soon be the Supreme Court’s decision to cancel the tariff.
When we examine all of this from a bird’s eye view, what we see is that global developments and events related to the US economy crypto coins The fact is that it interests me a lot. We had already faced this with the 2022 interest rate hike process, but this year we started to feel it better.
The market, which is insatiable with liquidations, triggered another liquidation of $725 million in the last 24 hours. Open positions have decreased and the Nonfarm Payrolls report is due on Thursday, which could increase volatility. This report contains September data that could not be published due to the shutdown and has poor reliability. However, if we see abnormal numbers, below-expectation numbers could help boost the crypto.
Wells Fargo
First, let’s take a look at what Wells Fargo analysts are expecting. Their expectation is that we will see 45 thousand new jobs in September. Unemployment estimates are in line with the consensus expectation of 4.3%.
“Alternative labor market data continues to paint a mixed picture, with the labor market not improving but not collapsing. Private sector employment growth remained stagnant throughout October, and real-time unemployment rate estimates show only a gradual increase over the past two months.”
Reminding that the report coming on Thursday will probably be the only full monthly report we will see before the December 10 interest rate decision, analysts predict a continuation of the weakening in employment. If the Fed is convinced of this, the markets may start to price this, as it will not be able to pass the discount in December. crypto- It means rise for.
“One issue we will be monitoring closely is the unemployment rate. Following volatility in recent months, we expect little change in the labor force participation rate in September due to continued weak demand and supply issues. While this should keep the unemployment rate steady, risks are likely to rise to 4.4%, with some potential rollback in the household survey employment measure. If this happens, the rate tends to rise to 4.4%.” FOMC’s It will exceed the central tendency predicted for “full employment” and the pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates at the last meeting of the year will increase. Lack of traditional data and Fed’s “Although market prices have retreated slightly due to his more hawkish statements, this is still our base scenario.”
Wells Fargo analysts say there will be a rate cut even though the market expectation is that there will be no cut.
Bank of America
As we approach the end of the article BTC It’s about to lose $92,000, and we’ll probably see it lost when it airs. Bank of America expects an increase of 65,000 jobs for September. Their main focus will be whether the August figures will be revised upwards. They expect these reports to curb concerns about a demand-driven labor force slowdown. So, we can say that they are predicting a bypass of the interest rate cut and a decline for crypto. This is interesting because we don’t usually see such contrasts in the economic reports of different companies. We are in an environment of complete uncertainty.
