Bitcoin 
$110,037.86The bullish momentum has largely exhausted since June, and the price remains in a narrow range, although it remains above $100,000. The current horizontal outlook has increased the warnings of analysts who believe in the four-year cycle theory against a possible bear market. But long-term technical indicators, especially the 200-week simple moving average, are briefly SMA still gives hope for the bulls.
The 200-Week Average Supports the Bull Cycle
According to TradingView data, Bitcoin’s 200-week SMA is currently at around $54,750, which is well behind the 2021 cycle peak of around $70,000. historically Bitcoin bull cyclesDuring the periods when the period ended, this average usually approached or tested the previous peak price. A similar intersection occurred in late 2017 and early 2021.
Experts point out that the current trend has not yet repeated this pattern and think that the long-term upward trend is still continuing. Short-term stagnation is interpreted as a natural part of the cyclical market structure.
However, it is quite risky for investors to make decisions based entirely on technical history. Because the number of similar examples in Bitcoin’s more than ten-year history is limited to only two. Therefore, the fact that the 200-week average has not yet reached the previous peak does not in itself mean a definitive bullish signal.
Will History Repeat in Bitcoin? Analysts Divided
Although market observers interpret the relationship between the 200-week SMA and past cycles as a bullish ray of hope, they state that past patterns may not be repeated exactly due to the increasing participation of institutional investors. In the 2017 and 2021 periods, the market was largely shaped by individual investors. Today, funds, ETFs and large trading desks price of bitcoinis in a decisive position.
For this reason, the view that the effect of historical averages in determining the direction of the market may weaken is gaining strength. Still, the 200-week average remains one of the strongest support indicators for long-term investors in technical analysis.
