Cardano (ADA), one of the prominent projects in the cryptocurrency markets 
$0.652974As of October 25, it was trading at USD 0.6420, while technical indicators are signaling a decline of at least 20% soon. In addition, TVL (Total Locked Value) losses in the ecosystem and stagnation in transaction volume also make investors think. In light of these developments, ADA is among the criteria that investors should follow carefully.
Technical View: Intersection of Death and Fear of Breakage
On the daily chart of ADA, it is seen that it decreased from 1.0196 USD in August to 0.6330 USD today. In particular, falling below the critical support level of 0.6858 USD on October 10 and retesting it is a sign that is generally considered as a “bear market continuation”. In addition, the fact that the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are about to cross each other carries the risk of a “death cross”. Supertrend indicator turned red, RSI and PPO are also moving downwards. Thus, the formation of a bearish pennant in ADA also increases technical risks. In this case, there is a possibility of a pullback to the intra-year low of 0.5085 USD; This is approximately 20% lower than the current level.
On the other hand, it is stated that this forecast will be invalidated if there is a break above the 200-day EMA of ~$0.80. Additionally, another analysis emphasizes that ADA failed to hold important Fibonacci retracement levels, the momentum weakened, and although the open interest increased above 600 million USD, there was not enough strength for a breakout.
Ecosystem Problems: TVL Declines, Activity Drops
While the risk increases on the technical chart, ecosystem indicators seen on the field clearly reveal the fragility. According to DeFi analysis platform data, Cardano’s total locked value dropped by 20% in the last 30 days to 291 million USD. Additionally, TVL has lost over 40% from its peak values in 2023. Behind this weakness, there are structural problems such as the lack of established stablecoins, the decrease in the number of active users, and the limited DEX transaction volume.
For example, the 24-hour trading volume of Cardano-based decentralized exchanges has dropped to only 1.53 million USD; This value remains quite low in an environment where transaction volume in rival chains is in the billions of USD.
Additionally, the founder of the project, Charles Hoskinson, said in a statement last month that Cardano will use Bitcoin to close its gap in DeFi. 
$111,672.87 He stated that he should focus on the field of DeFi and tokenized real assets (RWA) and suggested that TVL could increase to 10-15 billion USD with this strategy. However, for now, these goals do not appear to have been realized; The project reinforces the impression that it is lagging behind the competition.
As a result, selling pressure on ADA and challenges in the ecosystem feed into each other. The price structure, which is technically at a breaking point, combined with ecosystem weakness, means high risk for investors. On the other hand, the long-term strategic goals of the project (innovations such as Bitcoin DeFi, RWA, Midnight) are not completely excluded; However, these goals require time, funding and user interest to be realized. While the USD 0.5085 level is a potential target to watch for investors in the short term, a break above USD 0.80 may create hope for a resurgence. However, available data shows that caution is needed.
