The U.S. government shutdown has entered its second day, and according to prediction platform Polymarket, bettors expect the stalemate in Congress to drag on far longer than many had anticipated. With no breakthrough in sight, the shutdown has left hundreds of thousands of federal workers and the broader economy in limbo.
Polymarket Prediction Market Shows Shutdown Could Last Beyond October 15
Data from Polymarket’s prediction market reveals little confidence in a quick resolution. The largest share of participants, 43 percent, believe the shutdown will stretch until October 15 or later. Another 35 percent expect lawmakers to strike a deal sometime between October 10 and October 14, while just 20 percent see the deadlock ending earlier, between October 6 and October 9. A slim 3 percent think Congress will move before October 5.
“The numbers show how little confidence there is in Washington right now,” one Polymarket trader commented. “Most of us are betting on a long haul, not a quick fix.”
Congress Deadlocked Over Spending Bills and Healthcare Policy
The shutdown began after Republicans and Democrats failed to agree on government funding. Republicans are pushing for a short-term continuing resolution to temporarily reopen federal agencies, while Democrats argue that such stopgap measures only “kick the can down the road.” They want broader issues, particularly healthcare subsidies and Medicaid funding, addressed upfront.
Healthcare has quickly become the flashpoint in the dispute. Republicans claim Democrats are attempting to expand benefits to undocumented immigrants, an accusation Democrats strongly reject.
“Healthcare has become the battlefield in this fight,” said a Democratic aide. “But we’re not negotiating on misinformation, we’re negotiating on real policy priorities.”
Federal Workers Under Growing Financial Pressure
For federal workers, the political stalemate has already translated into financial pain. Many are being forced to work without pay, while others have been furloughed with no clear timeline for a return.
“It’s not just numbers on a spreadsheet; these are families struggling to make rent and buy groceries,” said Tony Reardon, president of the National Treasury Employees Union.
Thursday brought little movement on Capitol Hill, as much of Congress closed for Yom Kippur. Lawmakers are expected to return Friday, but so far, there is no sign of a breakthrough proposal that could reopen the government.
Crypto Industry Warns Shutdown Could Delay Regulation
The crypto industry has also weighed in, urging Congress not to allow the shutdown to stall progress on digital asset regulation. The Blockchain Association released a statement calling for bipartisan cooperation, warning that the current funding fight could derail momentum.
“Clear rules of the road for crypto shouldn’t take a back seat to political games,” the group said.
Ripple Effect of the Government Shutdown on Bitcoin and Crypto Markets
Despite the uncertainty in Washington, Bitcoin has surged past $120,000, continuing the bullish seasonal trend traders have dubbed “Uptober.” Historically, October has been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, and for now, that momentum is outweighing concerns about political gridlock.
Still, analysts warn that the longer the shutdown drags on, the greater the risks to the crypto sector. With most SEC staff furloughed, approvals for long-awaited Bitcoin ETFs could face delays, while a resource-strapped CFTC may be forced to slow oversight and new rulemaking.
“Markets are riding Uptober momentum right now, but Washington uncertainty is always a risk factor,” one analyst noted.
As the shutdown enters its second day, prediction market data shows Americans bracing for a long fight. Federal workers, crypto traders, and the economy at large are now caught in a standoff that could last well into mid-October or beyond.
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FAQs
Prediction markets indicate the U.S. government shutdown is expected to last until at least mid-October, with no quick resolution in sight from Congress.
The deadlock stems from a failure to agree on spending bills, with Democrats pushing to address healthcare policy, like subsidies and Medicaid funding, which Republicans oppose.
The shutdown could significantly delay key regulatory decisions, as furloughed staff at the SEC may stall the approval process for long-awaited financial products, such as Bitcoin ETFs.
Despite the uncertainty, Bitcoin has shown resilience by surging past $120,000, continuing a bullish seasonal trend known as “Uptober,” which is currently outweighing political concerns
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