The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is set to be released today at 8:30 a.m. ET, and markets are bracing for impact. With Wall Street consensus pointing to 2.9% inflation, traders are preparing for sharp volatility across stocks and crypto, particularly Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins.
CPI Data Forecast
Analysts expect a 0.3% monthly rise in CPI, bringing the annual rate from 2.7% in July to 2.9% in August.
- If CPI < 2.9%: “Bitcoin and alts will explode.” A softer reading would increase the chances of aggressive Fed rate cuts.
- If CPI = 2.9%: Markets could see a pullback, as the inflation trend would still be higher than last month’s 2.7%.
- If CPI > 2.9%: “This will be really bad for markets,” signaling inflation is heating up again.
Adding to the uncertainty, yesterday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) report came in much lower than expected, fueling speculation that CPI could also surprise to the downside. Some analysts suggest this could even open the door for a 50 bps rate cut at the Fed’s September 17 FOMC meeting.
Wall Street Outlook
Major banks are split on the outcome. Goldman Sachs warned CPI inflation may hit a new high in August, while Bank of America echoed the consensus forecast of 2.9%, matching Wall Street’s baseline expectations.
The Federal Reserve has emphasized its data-dependent approach, meaning today’s inflation reading will heavily influence how aggressive the central bank will be in cutting rates.
Bitcoin Price Analysis Ahead of CPI Report
Bitcoin has been highly sensitive to CPI prints this year. The last three CPI releases each triggered a 9–11% drop in BTC, highlighting how critical today’s numbers could be.
Currently, BTC has reclaimed the $112,000 level on the daily timeframe following the bullish PPI data.
- A decline in CPI could push BTC higher, with short-term upside targets between $116,500 and $117,500.
- This zone is expected to act as resistance, where Bitcoin may face rejection.
“I’m holding my assets and waiting for more upside move to offload,” one trader said, signaling caution despite the bullish setup.
Why the August CPI Report Matters?
This is not just another inflation update; it will set the tone for the September 17 Fed meeting and shape the path of interest rate cuts for the rest of 2025. If inflation continues climbing for the fourth consecutive month, the Fed may be forced to hold back on aggressive easing, which could pressure risk assets.
On the other hand, a softer CPI could spark a rally across crypto, giving bulls the momentum they’ve been waiting for as Q4 begins.
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FAQs
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks how the prices of everyday goods and services change over time. It’s one of the main ways to measure inflation. The Federal Reserve uses CPI to judge whether prices are rising too fast or staying stable, and those results help guide decisions on interest rates and affect market trends.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released today at 8:30 a.m. ET by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
If CPI is below expectations, the Fed may consider a 50 bps rate cut at its September 17 FOMC meeting. If inflation is higher, the Fed could delay aggressive cuts.
