Ethereum is having one of its best years so far, with Q3 gains already hitting 77%. After touching a new all-time high near $4,946, ETH is showing strong momentum as September begins. History suggests that big, Q3 rallies have often led to even bigger moves in Q4, raising the question.
ETH Saw Record-Breaking Quarter
Last week, Ethereum reached a new all-time high of $4,946 before pulling back slightly to around $4,414. Despite the dip, the bigger picture shows extraordinary growth. So far this year, institutional inflows into Ethereum have reached $11 billion, with U.S.-listed Ethereum ETFs now holding over $23 billion.
Another big factor is staking. Around 35 million ETH, about 29% of the total supply, is locked up by holders to earn rewards, which reduces the amount available for trading and helps support the price.
Why September Could Be Key
Looking at Ethereum’s quarterly returns, Q3 has usually been bullish. This year is no different; ETH is already up 77.6% this quarter, and since April, its price has jumped 244%.
History shows that when Ethereum performs well in Q3, the last quarter (Q4) often delivers even bigger gains. For instance, in 2020, ETH gained 59.2% in Q3 and then baubles in the following months to 105.8%. A similar story unfolded in 2017 and 2021 when big Q3 gains led to even stronger Q4 rallies.
This time, the push is not just from traders but also from big institutions. For example, iShares’ Ethereum fund has jumped from under $2 billion earlier this year to nearly $13 billion now.
On top of that, upgrades have made Ethereum faster and cheaper, while activity on layer-2 networks is at record highs, adding more strength to its rally.
What Next For Ethereum?
Popular trader Crypto Rover pointed out a key support line for Ethereum. In the past, every time ETH touched this level, the price bounced back with strong momentum.
Now, the coin is once again testing that same support, and traders across the market are watching closely to see if history will repeat itself.
At the moment, Ethereum holds strong support around $4,350, while resistance sits near $5,000. A clean breakout above $5,000 could open the doors for a bigger rally, with analysts eyeing potential targets between $6,000 and $7,500.
Of course, risks remain. September has a history of being a volatile month for crypto, often called one of the bearish periods on the calendar. On average, markets have seen a drop of around 3.6% during this month.
